Michael Babad
RTGAM


Lundin v. Equinox

Analysts are taking a fresh look today at the scenarios for Lundin Mining Corp. after it called off its friendly merger with Inmet Mining Corp. late yesterday, and set in motion a new auction.

The death of the deal to create a Canadian copper giant paves the way for a hostile move by Equinox Minerals Ltd. , which is offering $4.8-billion. Lundin has rejected that, and says it will continue to fight.

UBS Securities Canada analyst today boosted the 12-month price target on Lundin stock to $8.90 from $8.10. Here's how UBS sees it: A 40-per-cent chance of drumming up rival bids at an estimated price of $10.40 a share, a 50-per-cent probability of a successful Equinox bid at $8.10 a share, and a 10-per-cent chance of no deal, which would put the stock at $6.70.

"We therefore raise our target by 10 per cent to $8.90 and maintain a Buy rating, while highlighting the relatively short window of opportunity for [Lundin]."

UBS also believes Equinox could legally challenge Lundin's 11th-hour poison pill.