Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Organizers of the world’s largest annual mining convention are expecting attendance at the 2009 event will slump next week, mirroring the fortunes of the global industry.

The Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada said the annual Toronto-based event likely won’t match the record 20,000 participants last year, when prices for metals including copper and gold rose to records.

“The characteristics of this downturn are unique, as every one seems to be, but this one is unprecedented,” PDAC Executive Director Anthony Andrews said in an interview. “This financial crisis is really impacting our industry, and in particular, the juniors,” or small-scale exploration companies, which make up the majority of participants.

The 82-company Bloomberg World Mining Index has fallen more than 65 percent in the past year as shares for Rio Tinto Group, Xstrata Plc and other global metal producers have plunged by more than half. Financial turmoil has helped scuttle transactions including BHP Billiton Ltd.’s $66 billion unsolicited bid for Rio Tinto last year and Cliffs Natural Resources Inc.’s $2.88 billion merger with Alpha Natural Resources Inc.

The four-day PDAC convention, which begins March 1, brings buyers and sellers of mining companies and properties together to facilitate acquisitions in the industry.

The convention’s keynote address will be delivered by Marc Faber, the investor known as Dr. Doom, who said this week recent economic turmoil may be just an “appetizer” of things to come. Last year’s conference featured Rio Tinto Chief Executive Officer Tom Albanese, who was fighting off the BHP hostile takeover offer.

Falling Output

Exploration companies attending the PDAC convention will be promoting their discoveries as base-metal companies are cutting output and halting development of new projects because the credit crisis has made funding more scarce and the global economic slowdown has cut demand for metals.

Teck Cominco Ltd. announced in December it is shutting its Pend Oreille zinc mine and mill in Washington, and Xstrata and Teck last year closed the Lennard Shelf zinc mine in Australia earlier than planned. Xstrata has also announced cuts in coal, nickel and zinc production in Canada, Australia and the Dominican Republic.

Copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum and lead have all declined more than 50 percent on the London Metal Exchange in the past year.

Still, rising prices and demand for gold will prevent a sharp decline in PDAC attendance, Andrews said.

‘Beam of Light’

“Gold is a beam of light that investors are watching very carefully, and it’s the one thing that people are prepared to speculate on these days,” Andrews said. “It’s driving the mood in investment conferences I’ve been to recently.”

Gold, which is up about 8 percent this year, surged last week to an 11-month high of $1,007.70 an ounce in New York as investors sought to shield capital from financial turmoil.

“It’s a two-tiered market, gold and the rest, and that would be expected to be the case for the next six months and possibly 12 months,” Tony Robson, a Toronto-based analyst at Bank of Montreal, said in a Feb. 25 interview.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yesterday raised its 2009 forecast for gold 4 percent to $911 an ounce to reflect higher investment demand. The forecast for next year was raised 4 percent to $951.

PDAC organizers said about 13,500 people had registered as of Feb. 26 and expect that number to rise until the start of the conference. Officials declined to give registration numbers for their conference for the years before 2008.

Expectations that base-metal prices may not have much further to fall is also helping PDAC attendance numbers from falling further.

“Our guys have been through these times lots of times before,” Andrews said. “They know it’s inevitable that the commodity markets will come back aggressively.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rob Delaney in Toronto at robdelaney@bloomberg.net.