Micon Report
posted on
Jan 07, 2010 05:46PM
The company is exploring for nickel deposits on its Langmuir property near Timmins, Ontario; for nickel-gold-copper on its Cleaver and Douglas properties; and for molybdenum and rare earth elements at recently acquired Desrosiers property.
Well its finally here. And what a day it was. In a nutshell I would have to agree with Victors note(s). Others are being far too optimistic. Everyone can put a valuation themselves to these numbers and come up with their price of what should be.
In many ways the report had many more good things than I expected and some devastating things that disturbed me. The North Zone did prove out to be the largest deposit bar none in the Shaw Dome. Never a doubt based on those drill results. Open pitable with no boundary issues at all, as expected. The strip ratio was fantastic and one of the best. While the strip ratio was not great at L1 it does have a ramp in place already. Keep in mind that the L1 size is only for the east target where all the drilling occured. The central and west ore bodies can most likely assume the same grade and size +/-.
The suggestions of Micon are good ones however I would have thought most of those would have been done already. Why they were not done is the real question. I was dissapointed that the credits were not better defined. Too bad the company floundered on that opportunity as that would and can still improve the valuations.
The size of tonnage and grades while good and economic were far short of what the market was expecting. So I'm surprised that the price held up so well. As far as valuations go, with rising nickel inventories, rising exchange rates, higher operating costs I beleive all nickel plays in the Shaw Dome right now are trading at 3X greater value than they should be. Hence I unloaded much of my shares today.
Again, we see another stand alone project with great merits in the Timmins nickel camp. However ISM will not produce this nor should they. The majors will not be interested in all of Langmuir even with the upside IMO. The only entity that this project is good for is Liberty and the Chinese. The North Zone is easily large enough to produce a cash positive revenue stream that would easily see them pay off all their debt and preferred obligations with the least amount of capital required. A win win for both companies in an ironic way.
Question now is what should the Chinese pay for this deposit. Instead of doing detail assumptions of nickel prices etc I prefer to kick around whole dollar amounts and divide the fully diluted shares into those lump sums. Its sort of like a game. Would they offer $500M? Or $6 a share. Highly unlikely. How about $250M? Or $3 per share. I doubt it. Lets cut that down to $150M or $1.82. Ball park maybe. Probably more realistic for the Chinese to offer $100 to $150M in my mind, and spend the required monies for further exploration and capital upstart costs. So in the end I see this as a potential double at these levels. Question now is how long will that be. If ISM pursues these goals on their own it will take years to complete (based on past experience of getting things done). How do you discount the above lump sum figures with added risk of time which is unclear right now. Probably less than a $1.
This is why we pay Mr.Miller the big bucks and he has some tough decisions. If he continues holding Langmuir in our portfolio, I see it dragging ISM down and taking our eye off of the Cleaver & Desrosiers plans. I say move forward. Cut a deal and move on. We have the cash to do just that. Best,