Welcome To The Inspiration Mining HUB On AGORACOM

The company is exploring for nickel deposits on its Langmuir property near Timmins, Ontario; for nickel-gold-copper on its Cleaver and Douglas properties; and for molybdenum and rare earth elements at recently acquired Desrosiers property.

Free
Message: Langmuir Profit / Loss Forecast : "Open-Pit" Versus "Sub-Caving" Comparison

Langmuir Profit / Loss Forecast : "Open-Pit" Versus "Sub-Caving" Comparison

posted on Apr 04, 2010 02:58PM

After closely reviewing the past few years of ISM press releases as to the potential for Langmuir, I noticed that ISM has ALWAYS indicated that this was an "Open-Pit" opportunity. That implies that they always knew it was of lower grade NI but were betting on the volume to be there. There are "indicated resources" of 10M tons with "inferred resources" (conceptual in nature) for some 20M to 40M additional tons of similar grade. When I checked the historical NI prices I found that NI never really significantly rose above $4USD/LB until 2004. Given that the mining costs prior to 2004 were not very different than today, it would be evident that NI, at those prices, would not make the "Open-Pit" model economically viable in the Shaw Dome.Thus, there is not history and/or experience pertaining to large scale "Open-Pit" mining in the Shaw Dome. There are those that are venomously insistent that Langmuir is dead, there is no opportunity, and why waste one more cent trying to establish an economical business case to proceed with Langmuir. Micon, however, recommended moving forward and spending some 4 plus million dollars in an attempt to establish that up to 20 to 40 million tones of ore at similar grade exists ("inferred resource, conceptual in nature), and that there may be some pockets of higher grades located deeper. Micon also made the statement that "Open-Pit" most probably was never investigated as historical NI prices would have made it economically not viable. So, in an attempt to illustrate the difference between "Open-Pit" and "Sub-Caving" extraction methods, and their associated revenues, costs, and projected profitability, I constructed a comparison table below. The result was just fascinating. I present each of the "Open-Pit" and "Sub-Caving" for the MICON estimates for Langmuir with NI prices started at $4USD/LB up to $15USD/LB. I show the point (i.e. NI price) at which each of the methods become profitable with projected profits.Given the estimates and NI grade in the Micon Report, Langmuir becomes just starts to become profitable when NI is $5.05USD/LB when utilizing the “Open-Pit” method.Langmuir starts to become profitable using the “Sub-Caving” method when NI is $12.03USD/LB.Obviously, an Economic Viability Study will either prove or disprove what I have presented here.But I also can see the cost differentials between “Open-Pit” and “Sub-Caving”.

NI Prices/LB $4.00 $5.00 $6.00




"Indicated Resource" (Mt): 10,100,000 10,100,000 10,100,000
NI Content (%age) 0.41% 0.41% 0.41%
Expected Reserves (%age) 60% 60% 60%




"Indicated Reserves" (Mt): 6060000 6060000 6060000




Total Cost/Tonne Open Pit: 25.50 25.50 25.50
Total Cost/Tonne Sub-Caving: 61.00 61.00 61.00
Open Pit Extraction 4.50 4.50 4.50
Sub-Caving Extraction 40.00 40.00 40.00
G&A 3.50 3.50 3.50
Milling 16.00 16.00 16.00
Environmental 1.50 1.50 1.50




Revenue/Tonne $20 $25 $30
Yield NI/Tonne (lbs) 5.07375 5.07375 5.07375
SGS Metal Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%
Smelter Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%




Production Rates:


Tonnes/Day 3000 3000 3000
Working Days/Year 250 250 250
LOM (Years) 8.08 8.08 8.08
Annual Revenue: $15,221,250 $19,026,563 $22,831,875




Annual Open-Pit Costs: $19,125,000 $19,125,000 $19,125,000
Annual Open-Pit Gross Profit (No Cap): $3,903,750 $98,438 $3,706,875
LOM Open-Pit Profit (No Capital) : $31,542,300 $795,375 $29,951,550




Annual Sub-Caving Costs: $45,750,000 $45,750,000 $45,750,000
Annual Sub-Caving Gross Profit (No Cap): $30,528,750 $26,723,438 $22,918,125
LOM Sub-Caving Profit (No Capital): $246,672,300 $215,925,375 $185,178,450







NI Prices/LB $7.00 $8.00 $9.00




"Indicated Resource" (Mt): 10,100,000 10,100,000 10,100,000
NI Content (%age) 0.41% 0.41% 0.41%
Expected Reserves (%age) 60% 60% 60%




"Indicated Reserves" (Mt): 6060000 6060000 6060000




Total Cost/Tonne Open Pit: 25.50 25.50 25.50
Total Cost/Tonne Sub-Caving: 61.00 61.00 61.00
Open Pit Extraction 4.50 4.50 4.50
Sub-Caving Extraction 40.00 40.00 40.00
G&A 3.50 3.50 3.50
Milling 16.00 16.00 16.00
Environmental 1.50 1.50 1.50




Revenue/Tonne $36 $41 $46
Yield NI/Tonne (lbs) 5.07375 5.07375 5.07375
SGS Metal Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%
Smelter Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%




Production Rates:


Tonnes/Day 3000 3000 3000
Working Days/Year 250 250 250
LOM (Years) 8.08 8.08 8.08
Annual Revenue: $26,637,188 $30,442,500 $34,247,813




Annual Open-Pit Costs: $19,125,000 $19,125,000 $19,125,000
Annual Open-Pit Gross Profit (No Cap): $7,512,188 $11,317,500 $15,122,813
LOM Open-Pit Profit (No Capital) : $60,698,475 $91,445,400 $122,192,325




Annual Sub-Caving Costs: $45,750,000 $45,750,000 $45,750,000
Annual Sub-Caving Gross Profit (No Cap): $19,112,813 $15,307,500 $11,502,188
LOM Sub-Caving Profit (No Capital): $154,431,525 $123,684,600 $92,937,675








NI Prices/LB $10.00 $11.00 $12.00




"Indicated Resource" (Mt): 10,100,000 10,100,000 10,100,000
NI Content (%age) 0.41% 0.41% 0.41%
Expected Reserves (%age) 60% 60% 60%




"Indicated Reserves" (Mt): 6060000 6060000 6060000




Total Cost/Tonne Open Pit: 25.50 25.50 25.50
Total Cost/Tonne Sub-Caving: 61.00 61.00 61.00
Open Pit Extraction 4.50 4.50 4.50
Sub-Caving Extraction 40.00 40.00 40.00
G&A 3.50 3.50 3.50
Milling 16.00 16.00 16.00
Environmental 1.50 1.50 1.50




Revenue/Tonne $51 $56 $61
Yield NI/Tonne (lbs) 5.07375 5.07375 5.07375
SGS Metal Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%
Smelter Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%




Production Rates:


Tonnes/Day 3000 3000 3000
Working Days/Year 250 250 250
LOM (Years) 8.08 8.08 8.08
Annual Revenue: $38,053,125 $41,858,438 $45,663,750




Annual Open-Pit Costs: $19,125,000 $19,125,000 $19,125,000
Annual Open-Pit Gross Profit (No Cap): $18,928,125 $22,733,438 $26,538,750
LOM Open-Pit Profit (No Capital) : $152,939,250 $183,686,175 $214,433,100




Annual Sub-Caving Costs: $45,750,000 $45,750,000 $45,750,000
Annual Sub-Caving Gross Profit (No Cap): $7,696,875 $3,891,563 $86,250
LOM Sub-Caving Profit (No Capital): $62,190,750 $31,443,825 $696,900








NI Prices/LB $13.00 $14.00 $15.00




"Indicated Resource" (Mt): 10,100,000 10,100,000 10,100,000
NI Content (%age) 0.41% 0.41% 0.41%
Expected Reserves (%age) 60% 60% 60%




"Indicated Reserves" (Mt): 6060000 6060000 6060000




Total Cost/Tonne Open Pit: 25.50 25.50 25.50
Total Cost/Tonne Sub-Caving: 61.00 61.00 61.00
Open Pit Extraction 4.50 4.50 4.50
Sub-Caving Extraction 40.00 40.00 40.00
G&A 3.50 3.50 3.50
Milling 16.00 16.00 16.00
Environmental 1.50 1.50 1.50




Revenue/Tonne $66 $71 $76
Yield NI/Tonne (lbs) 5.07375 5.07375 5.07375
SGS Metal Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%
Smelter Recovery (%age) 75% 75% 75%




Production Rates:


Tonnes/Day 3000 3000 3000
Working Days/Year 250 250 250
LOM (Years) 8.08 8.08 8.08
Annual Revenue: $49,469,063 $53,274,375 $57,079,688




Annual Open-Pit Costs: $19,125,000 $19,125,000 $19,125,000
Annual Open-Pit Gross Profit (No Cap): $30,344,063 $34,149,375 $37,954,688
LOM Open-Pit Profit (No Capital) : $245,180,025 $275,926,950 $306,673,875




Annual Sub-Caving Costs: $45,750,000 $45,750,000 $45,750,000
Annual Sub-Caving Gross Profit (No Cap): $3,719,063 $7,524,375 $11,329,688
LOM Sub-Caving Profit (No Capital): $30,050,025 $60,796,950 $91,543,875
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply