Re: JAG Gap UP, News Getting Out
in response to
by
posted on
Jan 12, 2012 03:58PM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
Would think sp movement is more on the JP Morgan involvement, and the words due diligence, disclosure agreements, etc., etc., ...rather than the managemnet change that was, according to the PR, known for a while.
How to play buyout was just a suggestion because anything can happen from the announcement to aquistion completion. Just as we witnessed on the last buyout offer/rumor. Speculation spread is about 2% on average, meaning sp typically gets within 2% of the takeover offer. So, if there is a $9.30 bid, and the Market belives it, we should see JAG sp go to 9.11'ish and stay in a reasonable holding pattern at that sp. If not, then, well, we saw what happened last time.
About a quarter of takeovers see sp go higher than the offer, and if that happens then there is a likelihood of the offer being increased. May not happen here as JP Morgan will weed through and get the best bid out of the bunch. JPM is a name that the Market has confidence in, and lends credibility to the possible takeover/aquisition.
Typically, the target goes up in sp, while the aquiring company sp typically moves down (aquisition is considered a debt), then aquiring company sp usually flattens. By selling, proceeds can be used to buy shares in the takeover company if that is the desire. One specific problem is that if it is a foreign company, any offer of shares may not be tradeable to current shareholders. Lack of liquidity can be a stockholder's worst nightmare.
On your aside, I cannot address that DD at this time. Would suggest the Company web site, or SEC filings, for review of the quarterly and annual reports. It is painful, but necessary. Once you get used to the fomat, not really all that bad.