The Case for KWG
posted on
Mar 12, 2010 12:54PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
First time poster, long time watcher. Figured I'd put my two cents in, as there are many hypotheses flying around, and many ridiculous ideas (other forums are guiltier of this).
I've owned from 2.5 cents, have bought as high as 8 cents most recently, and will continue to buy going forward. I've begun to get frustrated by posts (mostly other forums which will remain nameless) such as "KWG $0.75 BY JULY --- BUY NOW BUY NOW BUY NOW." (I'm paraphrasing)
While this would be very nice, it's overly optimistic for short term (I'll refrain from saying pumping) and useless filler, and I wanted to express to those who may be new to the company, or those who may have overlooked certain points the excellent opportunity KWG represents.
1. The value of KWG's existing land package as it stands today is not the main driving factor in it's potential worth. Exploration is only the tip of the iceberg here. True, Big Daddy looks like a monumental discovery, but chromite alone is a very small part of the equation. They own a 1% NSR which is what drew me to this stock as a huge no-brainer. While many other people mention this very often, speculating on it's worth, very few people I think appreciate the magnitude of this. Based on Cliff's estimates of FWR's assets ALONE, once production starts, KWG would be a cash-flow monster. And please remember, the 1% NSR does not JUST apply to chromite, it applies to anything from the included sites. Does anybody else remember the signals shown by previous drill results that indicate there may be nickel underneath all that chromite? If that can be proven and expanded upon...forget about it.
2. KWG/Canada Chrome has staked and will own the railway access to McFauld's. They will not let every other company in the ROF use this railway for free out of their good nature, they will get paid for it.
As for the cost of building the railway, this seems to be developing faster than expected. Cliff's just issued $400 MM of paper. Some people speculate they will use these funds to buyout KWG/SPQ/both. That doesn't make sense. Stevie Ray already posted today that any buyout would not be in cash, and I believe that is absolutely correct. He also stated they would be wiser to use cash for infrastructure, and I believe, at least partially, that this is for railway development. The total cost has been estimated at $1-$1.5 billion. Clearly $400MM is not all the funding that will be necessary. Luckily enough, the provincial government is whole-hog behind this project. Hmmm. Also, KWG are exploring (with the CRA) the possibility of creating/issuing a flow-through bond. (Cash, no further dilution) and did no one else recieve an email from Frank saying they were considering doing another flow-through PP?? Do you think Frank is not on good speaking terms with Cliffs? Why would a company expecting an imminent takeover bid be focusing on raising cash??? KWG is not a takeover target, at least not now. The government I don't think would be as inclined to help an Ohio-based company as opposed to Canadian, for issues of financing, not to mention FN relations support.
While many people speculate about a buyout at/around $0.25, I think that is aiming too low. I don't want to hazard a prediction about share price, but let me say that $0.25/share is by no means the pinnacle of KWG's potential. I would not support a takeover bid at that price, and hopefully other knowledgable investors wouldn't either. While a buyout may be the objective for some KWG investors, it is not for me, at least not until the full scope of this project is realized, and KWG is appreciated for the true value it deserves. This is a long-term outlook. I am patient enough to wait, for years even, for the true value of this company to emerge. Of course, do your own research.
Sorry for the long-winded post, hopefully raised some thought-provoking issues. This continues to be the biggest no-brainer buy I have.
Cheers