True value considerations
posted on
Jun 19, 2010 10:27AM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
At some point we will all have to make a determination as to what we are willing to accept as true value for our shares. The following are some of my personal considerations.
First, if you own both KWG and SPQ, which I do.......that in itself will influence your decision.....merger vs offer for spider and KWG seperately. I personally think, as a shareholder of both, that the eventual price will be maximized by a merger.....whatever that price is.
Next, it terms of dollar figures....rather than looking at price/share, we must think in terms of market cap. We know that FWR was taken out for $240 million. Basically 100% ownership in four claim blocks. Although initially, they have proved up the largest amount of chrome thus far, most of the upside is in the form of digging deeper.....rather than say...along stike. Furthermore, although the Big Daddy deposit is smaller in terms of size thus far, I think we could all agree that the grade is better....don't discount a few % points......and although we still don't have a complete picture of the size, there is surely enough chrome to mine for many many years to come....so 100 million tons or 500 million tons is not that relevant.
Along this same thinking....just look at a map of the area in terms of number of claims that KWG and SPQ are part of. In addition to the 43-101 on the chrome, we also have a 43-101 on a copper deposit (JV with KWG/SPQ/UC).....along with other VMS style hits. I'm thinking as well that we may soon see additional value there once BMK reveals what exactly they have found in terms of VMS style deposits (see latest news regarding BMK VMS hit).
Next, before NOT even hit their eagle deposit, KWG and SPQ were in there exploring for diamonds....and the full value of their companies were primarily that of their kimberlites. A complete takeout of both KWG and SPQ would put these diamond properties in the hands of cliffs as well. Again, don't discount what these could be worth as stand alone prospects....victor mine is very near and doing quite well....
Next, let's not forget the NSR and the rail link. The history of Sudbury speaks to the potential for great discoveries in the process of developing the rail link in itself.
Strategically speaking....what is it worth to Cliffs to not have this fall into the hands of another party. If the cost to develop big daddy is less than all the other deposits, that would make the value of Cliffs chrome virtually worthless (as seems to be the case with Noronts blackbird deposits). Keeping in mind of course that the best chrome deposit in the area may not have even been discovered thus far. The PRB and NOT JV looks to be promising in terms of grade as well. The proximity to other deposits may play a factor as well to provide credits to the cost. Then, there are considerations as to what is acceptable to the natives, the government and the environmentalists. Perhaps Noronts underground approach wins out in the end.
In summary:
$240 million for 4 claim blocks vs offer of about $200 million (assuming both) for interest in hundreds of claim blocks that include a higher grade chrome resource with better potential for increase in size, several VMS finds, several kimberlites, a NSR on three main chrome deposits, and the land rights for the rail line
I think they could do better than that.