Re: Cliff's buyout of KWG...Why Cliff's?
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 30, 2011 10:28AM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
Cliffs doesn't have all the time they want. It is my honest impression that others are looking in. (big boys) These others unlike Cliffs are not bound by any kind of insider status (major shareholder in KWG) and therefore can launch a hostile TO at anytime.
Now my point is... the longer they wait, the more chance there is of good news coming out, from the govs (infrastructure), from the FN or from KWG (PPP) or from the Chinese who could buy-in just to secure the Off-Take agreements for the future...these guys don't necessarily want to own companies in the ROF, they just want to secure the contracts for minerals in an effort to support their development in the next 20, 30, 40, 50 years...
One other possible scenario involves a Take-Over of Cliffs by a bigger Iron/coal producer who might want to dominate the North American market not to mention take a serious slice of the Indo/Chinese market and diversify into Ferralloys given that future projections for production of Iron vs Chromium seems to be going in diverging directions. Demand for Iron wis reported to deminish slightly in the next couple of years and while demand for chromium will increase. Now what would be easier..... Take-Over Cliffs first or KWG first.
And if Cliffs maintains its story of developing BT first, wouldn't that open the door for someone to move in on BD given the increased profitability. What if this Giant were to Take-Over KWG and/or Canada Chrome and still maintain the capacity to buy-out Cliffs...what effect would that have on Cliffs ability to take the ROF into production. If this giant waits to long, it will get exponentially more expensive, even though these costs would pail in comparison to the value of the resource in the ground long term. Moreso, this or a similar scenario could be played out by the partner in the PPP.
That is why I don't think that (MHO) the big players are willing to wait and see what the effect will be on the KWG shareprice, especially in light of the looming deadline of 1 April 2012...more and more unknowns creep in as we approach that date and that's where the cost goes up hyper-exponentially to any company wanting to develop the BD or the ROF chromite deposits.
I think Gov/FN/KWG/NOT/CLF talks are currently on-going to weigh the pros and cons of all the possible scenarios.
Best of luck to all KWG/ROF longs
LP