Re: Think they can afford us...depends on the united resistence!
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 12, 2011 10:03AM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
You seem to be painting a scenario which describes a hostile take-over from Cliffs, when it has been established that as an insider and a major shareholder (17.4% shares) they are legally bound to come with a friendly offer following a valuation. Recently they passed on exercising some of their warrants at .15, probably because they didn't want to be seen paying that price for stock that they are suppressing below .10. Even if they decided to sell enough shares on the open market to bring their total to below 10%, by law they would have to wait a full year before attempting a hostile take-over.
The current tally of shareholders willing to hold fast until a fair price is offered ( being done by goldhunter on stockhouse.com) has identified a running total holdings of over 80 million shares that are friendly to KWG's defence. This only from approx 35 to 40 shareholders (out of 6000) + the execs/management holdings at KWG... That's alomost 10% of the fully diluted float.
If you assume that many warrantsat .12 and .15 cents won't be excersized before the friendly offer, then the resistence has more than 10% total identified as willing to defend against a low offer, when it is put to a vote which would be significantly affected by the board's reccomendation.
Cliffs is keeping the price down to create the perception among shareholders (eventual voters) that it is only worth that much...they are also banking on the possiblitiy of shareholder fatigue working in their favor...IMHO if you are eating well and paying your mortgage, then don't give in at a low price like Neil Novak did because he got tired...if he hadn't caved he probably would be making ten times the amount he got for his shares, selling them at .19, because the partnership between SPQ and KWG would have been consumated and we would be controlling the BD.
Holding out as long as possible and getting closer and closer to April 2012, only puts upward pressure on Cliffs and the KWG SP, notwithstanding that if we get there, 1. revenues become garanteed in 2015 due to the NSR (millions per year) 2. KWG continues to increase its' intrinsic value by developping CCC and DDI; 3. the partnership on BD, becomes a reality, which makes moot, the point of developping BT or BL first, because Cliffs shareholders already know that BD is exponentially more profitable than thos other two deposits.
It would also open the door for a big player to swoop in and buy-out KWG's 30% secure the off-take agreements, for years to come which would bind not only some future profits for Cliffs, but also a portion of production which Cliffs would not have the perogative to sell to anyone else.
MHO...hang in there as long as you can while feeding your family and we will all be rewarded for our patience...don't be fooled by this obvious game...all good things come to those who wait...and this, is a very good thing!
Good luck to all KWG and DDI longs
LP