Re: Realistic valuation...what to take into account? and why!
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 17, 2011 11:05PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
Hey MD,
I do agree with you that these numbers are surprisingly high (relative to SP) but I also do maintain that they are conditional upon two things: 1. KWG surviving until April 2012 and 2. receiving approvals for RR operators' license and 3P funding. High valuation are based on PEA versus original valuations on BD alone... notwithstanding the possibility of unforeseen events that could take place to delay the approvals and/or to create a bidding war.
WRT the trading at low prices...we have witnessed trading that undoubtedly reveals manipulation (more precisely: price suppression) by parties unknown. I am pretty sure that you will agree...that the numbers in the PEA are correct. Afterall KWG spent in the millions of $$$ having the document researched and produced.
As for conventional wisdom..it only applies to stocks which trade in typical technical parameters and fundamentals that go along with production and earnings...these penny stocks are not subjected to the same parameters due to the fact that institutional buyers don't have the opportunity to wade in...and that they don't have earnings yet. I am pretty sure that market makers are not involved either given the lack of volatility (ATR) which is really what they are looking for. For these reasons, I beleive that stocks like KWG and others depend on material information, technical reports and financial support from buyers or investors, as well as M & A rumors or news.
I would like to believe that KWG has dramatically improved both their position in the ROF, their visibility in the media, their relations with Govs and FN as well as their overall value, since last year. If the trading price doesn't reflect that, then we would be gullible to beleive the trading price instead of all the material information that has been promulgated.
I don't understand that .30 would satisfy you at this point, when so much has transpired since the original valuations last year. Don't get me wrong though...I am not saying that the take-over will happen at those higher SP levels...I am only highlighting that the possibility is there ...for those shareholders who might not have read the posts during the last year. It is crucial to repeat the material info every so often, to inform the SHs who are new to the site.
Best of luck to you and all KWG longs,
LP