rj,

CLF might appeal, but as you said, it would cost quite a bit just to file the appeal and likewise for KWG to prepare a response to the appeal. This will drag on for at least a few years. We can be sure that the cost would be substantial for both sides. My take is that if CLF appeal it would have a very very slim chance of winning (may be zero chance of winning). After all, the Commissioner, based on the "law of the land" has spoken in favour of KWG. So, I can't imagine any higher court would overturn the Commissioner's ruling. Even the Province of Ontario would not want to interfere due to the risk of getting sued by KWG for damages (loss of business opportunities, etc...) caused by this interference.

Similar risk would apply to CLF. If it won the appeal, KWG will appeal the decision which will take more years to resolve. If CLF lost the appeal, there is a good chance for KWG to file a civil suit against CLF with respect to loss of opportunities, and the potential punitive penalty could be very high for CLF.

As a public company with shareholders to report to, CLF would not want to play this game just for the fun of it. Just too much money is at risk. They have spent a substantial amount of money, some $0.5B? on acquiring FWR and SPQ and on subsequent activities to propose and push for its business plan, More court proceedings which take years to resolve would not promote their game plan.

There is a small chance that it may appeal, due to its bullying practice, to use this as a bargaining chip in its negotiation with KWG. But this will cause more bad blood. It would be best to come with an olive branch rather than with a gun pointing at somebody's head, imo.

There is big, very big risk that CLF may lose it all, if a major steps forward to support KWG. Currently, CLF is surrounded with PRB, NOT, FNC/KWG claim and the RR (or road) would need the transportation corridor. If there is a rival proposal for developing the resource bonanza in the RoF, i.e. getting the stuff (Ni, Chromite, etc) out, this would be welcome by the Fed and the Prov with open arms...and CLF will left twisting in the wind.

Here is one potential scenario. NOT/KWG/PRB get together to form a JV, and with the backing of Baosteel, the deep pocket and the consumer of Ni and chromite. This consortium can develop Eagle Nest for Ni, and BC and BH for chromite. Even though BC deposit is smaller (~10M tonnes), it has a technical report available showing an excellent deposit (high ground, high grades, etc). BC is ready to go. Let's be bold, start with something like 2M tonnes/year to make some decent profit to finance future activities.

This plan would deplete the BC deposit in 5 years, unless they find more chromite at depth (still open). However, by that time BH (and Blackbird) would be ready for feeding the mill. Of course, they would realize that the value-added products are a lot more profitable, so they would include in their plan a smelter/PyroMet furnace to please the Prov (and the Fed as well).

BTW, I'm no expert in smelter, but presumably NOT's Ni can be processed by Vale's smelter to produce the value-added products.

The smelter in Sudbury was designed for Ni processing, could it be easily converted to process chromite? Vale is planning to shut one of the 2 furnaces down to save some money. Perhaps, Vale could be approached to sort out a deal, rather than building a brand new facility. This would save some Capex and time to get through the permits and EA.

Just my speculation.

goldhunter