Re: my guess
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 30, 2014 12:41PM
Black Horse deposit has an Inferred Resource Now 85.9 Million Tonnes @ 34.5%
MarlboroD
Your reasoning: "leaving Cliffs with a minority share in BD probably wouldn't be on the table. They'd still be responsible for that percentage contribution to development of the mine, and they're not interested in spending any money."
is quite valid since Cliffs don't want to spend any more money. It just wants as much return as possible for its initial investment which has now written down to "zero". This would narrow it down to an NSR, if some sucker with deep pockets want to step up the plate to develop this "zero value" asset to jump through the hoops to get it going.
Why NSR, while there is no chance for a project to get started? My guess would be that Goncalves has no intention to keep the NRS. Perhaps this is part of a two- part deal. First, get the NRS then to get the ball rolling, then unload it to someone else for cash. That someone else could be the same deep pocket that helps KWG with the financing, or KWG itself.
I have written off the possibility for CLF to keep the shares (10-14%) of KWG, since KWG would want to have this CLF millstone around its neck. Too messy to keep CLF in the loop of decision makers.
Besides, it would be cleaner from the potential litigation point of view: Everyone, including the Ontario Gov., would want Cliffs to wash both hands and walk away from the RoF. CLF stake in KWG could be sold to KWG or to the deep pocket, for a few $M ($4-5M at the current sp).
It's a complex chess game, but if the right stars are all lined up: deep-pocket, both levels of governments, etc, this project could be fast tracked...no big deal, Frank can do it!
First move for a favourable star lineup would be to get rid of any shooting star that seems to go around in a circle. On the other hand, misbehaving (i.e. shooting) star could be roped in to stay in line? Sure, it's all politics.
goldhunter