Troubling signal for Ontario Liberals: Editorial

Byelections always give voters a chance to express their dissatisfaction with the government, but last week’s Liberal defeat in Whitby-Oshawa delivered an unusually stark warning to Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne.

Despite pulling out all the stops to wrest the seat from the Progressive Conservatives, the Liberals had the worst showing in their 13-year tenure. Wynne brought in Prime Minister Justin Trudeau two days before the vote to boost Liberal support. Her government released a large swath of land, set aside 44 years ago for a new airport in Pickering, to developers for a “sustainable community” creating an estimated 35,000 jobs in the region. She deployed negative advertising, accusing the Conservatives of plotting to bring back coal, the dirtiest source of energy. She invested a huge amount of time and effort in the riding.

It was all for naught. Conservative candidate Lorne Coe beat his Liberal counterpart Elizabeth Roy by 53 per cent to 28 per cent.

It wasn’t because Whitby-Oshawa was unwinnable. Federal Liberal candidate Celina Caesar-Chavannes picked it up in last fall’s general election.

It wasn’t because the Tories had a star candidate. Coe, a 66-year-old Durham councillor, had a much lower profile than Christine Elliott, the popular incumbent who stepped down last August.

And it wasn’t because of local issues. The month-long campaign was dominated by the government’s decision to sell off most of Hydro One, the accumulation of scandals on (and predating) Wynne’s watch, and cuts in health-care services.

The premier had nowhere to look but in the mirror to explain her party’s showing. She insisted the Liberals will win back the riding in two years. Elizabeth Roy went further. “This is not a loss,” she assured her supporters, vowing to turn things around before the 2018 provincial election.

Although the provincial Liberals face a palpable hunger for change, there are several steps Wynne can take to put a fresher face on her government.

The first is to get moving on its plans to improve public transit, build affordable housing and get other municipal projects started. That will depend on how quickly the federal government releases the $10 billion a year in infrastructure funds Trudeau has promised.

The second is to shake up her cabinet. Several of her senior ministers are weak. Most are holdovers from former premier Dalton McGuinty’s tenure. She needs new talent and new energy. (Do they speak of Gravelle?)

The third is to put some solid accomplishments in front of Ontarians. Her government has plenty of plans. What it needs to win back a measure of public confidence is progress that people can see and feel; hydro bills they can understand; home care services they can count on; a functioning cap-and-trade system; and jobs that pay enough to live on.

Finally, it would help if Wynne kept her partisanship in check. Her job is to serve all Ontarians, not just Liberals. The premier went further than any of her predecessors — and all her provincial peers — in endorsing and campaigning for Trudeau in last fall’s election.

Whitby-Oshawa was always a long shot for the Liberals. The Conservatives led the polls throughout the race. There was a lot of goodwill toward Elliott and her husband, the late Jim Flaherty, in the riding. The timing of the 1,000-acre land release was suspicious. Voter turnout was low. For a long-serving government, that is a lethal combination.

But it would be a mistake to dismiss Whitby-Oshawa as an isolated aberration. The byelection showcased many of the issues the Liberals will face at the polls in 2018.

It highlighted voters’ misgivings over the sell-off of public assets. It demonstrated that newly elected Tory leader Patrick Brown is building support on the ground. And it signalled that the trusty red machine that carried the Liberals to victory in four successive elections is badly in need of a tune-up.