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Message: Letter to a Friend #1

Letter to a Friend #1

posted on Oct 05, 2008 04:03PM

Bob, The best gold funds out there are probably the Tocqueville Gold Fund run by John Hathaway and and U.S. Global Gold and PM fund run by Frank Holmes. Sprott Assett Management has a good gold fund also, Gold and Precious Minerals Fund. I am not an expert at funds however, because I am only investing in individual companies. I have a very large position in Kimber right now, but I or members of my group also have positions in Minefinders MFN, Yamana AUY, Agnico-Eagle AEM and a variety of other smaller companies. But those are my top four right now. There is a company called First Majestic that is very well managed. I've met the CEO a couple of times and he knows how to play the game in Mexico very well, perhaps better than anyone else I've met who has operations down there. This is a pure silver play however, as is Endeavor Silver EXK, another small producer I like. The derivatives market is about to break the back of the economy. The numbers we are talking about here as just too large for just about anyone to even comprehend. Just keep these facts in mind, courtesy of Frank Holmes... The entire U.S. Money supply is $15 trillion. The value of all the stocks and bonds traded on world markets in their entirety is $100 trillion. The derivatives markets equal $516 trillion. This measly little bailout is not going to do very much. It's a smokescreen. We are heading for major economic trouble in this country. I don't like to use words like disaster, but such terms come to mind. A huge number of people are going to lose their incomes. Real estate prices are going to fall quite a bit from here. The FED is going to keep increasing the money supply and lowering interest rates as Bernanke has promised, but the velocity of money is going to grind to a halt. The analogy of pushing on a string comes to mind. You can force money into the system, but you can't force people to use it. When people start to panic, which they haven't yet, they won't use it. It's going to be much worse than people right now are imagining. There will be very few safe havens. And right when it breaks, there may appear to be no safe havens at all. As far as economic cycles go... The creative ways that those with the abilities to do so have devised to increase credit and foster misallocations of capital and money supply increases that such policies promote have set the table for a much deeper down-swing than previous cycles have seen. It's going to be harsh, very, very harsh. A.


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