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Message: Letter to a Friend #2

Letter to a Friend #2

posted on Oct 05, 2008 04:05PM

Bob, Many things to discuss here. The first is that I > believe that it could be 20+ years before we see the Dow at > 12,000 again. Everything recovers, but the Dow and general > markets are on the way to 6000 and I can see nothing > technically or fundamentally or from an investor-psychology > perspective that can stop that. > I don't believe in diversification. I am always > reminded of Warren Buffet's quote, "Broad > diversification is for those who don't know what they > are doing." If I had not diversified in the past and > put everything into what I believed in, I would be much wealthier than I am right now. In short, great fortunes have > never been built by diversification. And we need to build > wealth right now, not just hold it. > As far as hedging. I think anything outside the precious > metals market right now is unsafe, i.e. unstable. Therefore > there can be no hedge. I don't even see cash as a hedge > right now. The entire economic structure is unstable. > True, Kimber has fallen, but the company has deposits, has proved > it can get financing and is a Canadian company operating in > Mexico. When a major depression hits, there will be no > revolution in Mexico. The political situation in Mexico > right now is as stable as it has been in a long while. > I'm not worried. I've talked with representatives > from several mining companies operating in > the region. None have concerns. > WE should see gold up over 1600 within a year or so, and > that will put Kimber up into the $10-$15 range as a buyout > target. I'd drop a litle cash into it right now. I know > the company very well. I know the management, and personally > know investors that have $20,000,000 invested in the > company. I know what's going on with this company. And > it's all very good. Very few people know how good. But > within a few months, they will. Al >

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