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Message: Re: How low will it go?

Apr 13, 2010 01:06PM

All of these prices are in US dollars.

I have been with Kimber since late 05. Thinking back to that time, my recollection is that it could move up with much, much greater ease. There wasn't this feeling of a HEAVY PRESENCE sitting on the stock. On 2/13/06, it took off after a short consolidation to a high of about $3.45 US in early April. Given that Kimber was mostly Blue Sky at that point, and hadn't really drilled much, this price does seem high to me. Witness that the price dropped from the high of $3 and change while the gold price was still moving up for another 5 weeks after the April 06 top in Kimber (Gold topped May 12, 06 if I remember correctly).

The next breakout occurred in Oct 06 at about $1.79 (not far from the IPO price of $1.84, I think). Jim and Co had eliminated the need for a Proxy Battle over Kimber by the third week of October. This removed a cloud of uncertainty from the stock, and it had a decent run from $1.79 to a high of $2.59. This was what really had me wondering what was going on, as it formed a downward sloping trendline from the 06 top and the fundamentals continued to improve. The gold price was consolidating in a trading range from the swing low in summer of 06 until late Sept of 07, so not super bullish, but the next run in gold had me scratching my head as Kimber barfed some more.

From the bottom in Aug 07 to the top in March 08, Kimber continued to go almost straight down. By this point, I think Jim was talking about naked shorts on his program, and it was easy to see as the gold price shot up, the fundamentals of Kimber improved, and yet the shorts kept knocking the stock down. KBX (or KBR if you're in Canada) went down, almost in a straight line until it hit a low of 66 cents US. I was in there buying for my Mom at that time at about 68 cents. That was in early Feb of 08. It then took off to that magical line of resistance which we have seen many times at the $1.79 to 1.85 level. Heavy selling came in - I assume this is the naked shorts, but it could have been triggered by original IPO holders who bought at the IPO price. It then pulled back to $1.33 while gold paused at around Jim Sinclair's angel at $887.50. From that time in early Feb, gold catapulted from 887-ish to 1033 in the third week of March 2008 while Bear Stearns collapsed and lost control of its metal short positions. All this time Kimber was going down while gold was rising. After gold fell in March, it then made another attempt at 1000, and I think it hit 1006 intraday, and then collapsed. Kimber in reaction ran to $1.86 and then the following week to $1.96. As gold collapsed during the summer of 08, which was marked by gathering storm clouds and a profound sense of urgency.

The naked shorts used the cover given by the gold cartel to run the price down further during the meltdown. Gold had been falling rapidly as Fannie and Freddy collapsed, the whole commodity complex was in free fall as the central banks worked together to undermine competition to their worthless paper, herding everyone into bonds and cash. Right before Lehman Bros. collapsed, KBX was selling for 60 cents, a new low at the time. Then they let Lehman Bros go and AIG failed days later. GOLD rose like a Phoenix from the ashes, rising over $75 in ONE DAY. Kimber ran to $1.29, close to a key resistance level. The Feds wrestled the gold price back down, and took the whole market and nearly the whole economy with it. Gold formed a double-bottom in late October and late November of 08, the final bottom and end of the panic selling the day before Thanksgiving. Jim did his radio show on gold stocks that weekend, and that marked the bottom for many gold stocks. Kimber hit a low of 41 cents in October, not November.

Kimber was gradually accummulated as gold and gold stocks rallied from Dec 08 to JP Morgan's push down in summer of 09. This marked the final capitulation on a selling climax in Kimber at 40 cents US. The move in late 09, from 63 cents to $1.80, is similar to what we have seen in the past with this stock, with some exceptions. One, we have built a great base five years in the making. Two, the fundamentals are improving while the gold price averages at a higher and higher level. Three, we have pushed above the 200-day moving average on volume. Four, the Pac-Man theory is becoming reality. Five, the shorts will provide rocket fuel as they flame out into a burnt-out carcass.

This is classic Graham-Dodd value investing, though many do not see it.


Apr 13, 2010 06:36PM

Apr 14, 2010 12:49PM

Apr 14, 2010 01:26PM
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