A member of my group asked me to bring everything I had to bear on this problem, so this is the result. It's the best I can do, and I've been working on it for quite sometime. These numbers are sound if my metrics are correct. The metrics, however, are, by necessity, of my own creation.
Bull
I will break it down by percentages involving the chances of the buyout. This is as long as gold stays above $1,000 per ounce. For simplicity sake, involving a rise of the price of gold towards the $2,300 range, for every 100 dollars per ounce gold rises, add a percentage point to the calculations until you approach 99%.
On or before Sept 2013: 99%
On or before Sept 2012: 92%
On or before Sept 2011: 78%
On or before Sept 2010: 40%
Minimum buyout price target right now is $5.25.
Maximum buyout price target right now is $12.42.
This changes based on the price of gold as well, but the calculations are much more complicated. For the purposes of this, I am assuming a steady slow advance in the gold price that will take it to greater than $1,600 an ounce within the next 24 months.
My personal opinion is that it will go much higher than that based on the fundamentals I now see.
Hope this helps. All the best...
