New Metrics
posted on
May 18, 2010 05:51PM
Creating value through Exploration and Development in the Sierra Madre of Mexico
All: I wrote a piece awhile back about creating new metrics in this gold bull market. Take a look at it. It is for the reasons outlined in that piece that I believe most analysis involving this company is, AT THIS TIME, by and large, seriously lacking. This doesn't mean that those attempting that analysis are not a very, very smart people. Many are. However, right now the macroeconomic fundamentals that underlie this market are unique, more unique than 99% of humanity has yet to grasp, and trump just about everything else involving analysis done on a smaller scale. Civilization has not seen anything like what we are seeing economically on a worldwide scale in over 4000 years. The paper markets and the abilities short traders have to create synthetic shorts are unprecedented. The ability of an investment bank to attack an entire country like Greece is unprecedented. The lack of understanding of gold and silver as money by such a massive part of the economic world, and even the common man, is unprecedented. At this point estimates of gold in the ground are of little importance compared to political stability of nations, potential of currencies to survive and the potential of gold to remonetize, which, I believe it is about to do. Over the past several months I have been working on and created an entire new series of metrics. Why? Nothing else was making sense. I'm not talking about trading in and out of markets here. I am talking about a sea change involving the political and economic underpinnings of several nations. I am talking about revolution and violence. I am talking about something new. These metrics involve a variety of psychological factors: traditional technical indicators, analysis of Faber, Dines, Russell, Sinclair and Eric King...interviews with the man on the street...interviews with Mexicans, Canadians, Chinese, Silicon Valley businessmen, gold miners, geologists and others. Numbers fly around, and I try to get ahold of them and objectify them the best I can. At best, this is a very difficult process, like trying to envision a jet while riding on the just-invented twin prop airplane. I leave you with this. If you understand this, you will understand where I am coming from: From Ecclesiastes: "The wind blows where it wills, and you hear the sound of it, but you know not whence it comes or whither it goes. " I am trying to listen to the wind. Fortunately, I have heard it and feel it. If I push to find out exactly where it is coming from, I will not find out. The vanity of such a search could be punished by me losing my edge, which I believe is the best edge I have ever had in my investment career. I cannot afford to take that chance. I have not lost any sleep over Kimber from day one. This wasn't true with other investments that proved very lucrative in the past. Sorry that my message seems cryptic. I know that's what you are trying to avoid. Unfortunately, although something many strive for in this life, I'm not sure it is a goal involving love, parenting, coaching baseball or analyzing markets that can be accomplished to the extent that the logical mind can comfortably embrace. Better to surrender to it than continue trying to overcome it. You will be the first ones to know when and if I sell a single share of Kimber. All the best, Bull