ebear, i also own shares of goldcorp, and i agree that it is superior in terms of growth, cost structure and safety. the only reason i didn't mention them is that i was comparing mid-tier producers, and i consider goldcorp to be a major.

btw, i think i am now actually more sanguine on ecuador than you are, and that is quite a reversal. my reasoning is as follows: the playing field shifted in ecuador when kinross bought/stole aurelian. i don't know whether correa is just feeling his oats because he won a referendum, or he's doing some blustering for his constituents, or maybe he was asleep during his economics 101 class.

but i think he's about to find out that money goes where it is treated best. until now he has been dealing with small companies like aurelian, corriente and dynasty. aurelian was 100% invested in ecuador, and had nowhere else to go. kinross is not captive to ecuador. it is a much larger company with a diversified portfolio of projects all around the world. if one country (say, ecuador) alters its tax scheme in a negative manner, kinross can invest its money in any number of other projects.

this is a hypothetical conversation:

correa: i want a 10% royalty right off the top. and then i want our regular tax structure applied, and then i want a windfall tax on top of that!

kinross: oh really? then why should we invest hundreds of millions of dollars in this two-bit banana republic if you're just going to confiscate all of the profits? we'll build cerro casale in chile instead. and we'll build another project in mexico, and we'll even expand kupol in russia before we do business with you. we'll spend just enough to keep our concessions in good standing. meanwhile, we'll let you explain to your people why they don't have jobs, and they're living in poverty. while all of the jobs go to chile and mexico, countries where they actually have a mining industry because their governments have realistic taxes and royalties. then in a couple of years, when your people throw you out on your ear, and they elect a president we can deal with, we'll be back to build the fdn mine. in the meanwhile the gold stays in the ground, where it will become more valuable every year.

correa: oh, &$%#@!

of course this conversation would take place between intermediaries at a much lower level, and it would be a lot more polite. afterwards, kinross would issue a news release saying that talks with the government were "candid and forthright" which means they stopped just short of throwing their teacups at each other.

the point is that kinross has more projects than it has capex funds for, so they can afford to wait on fdn. correa can't afford to wait. presidents come and go, and if he wants to develop his country, he will need to make this happen.