DELIVERING DISCIPLINED GROWTH
Third largest primary Gold Producer in North America
Message: Tier1 V Tier11
http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/...
Watch out where the big wolves go
Investors shun Tier I gold stocks, preferring Tier II names, and also gold juniors.
Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Friday , 31 Oct 2008
JOHANNESBURG -
Amid a quarterly reporting season that has been largely uninspiring for gold stocks, the world's most heavily publicised equities mining subsector continues to lag in performance. The gold bullion price has also been uninspiring; it may be sniffing disinflation, and there is, to boot, rising evidence of a slowing global economy.
While the dollar gold bullion price is among the least injured across the commodities complex, at 29% off its highs - seen in March this year - listed gold equities have been broadly outperformed by listed coal stocks (outside the Asian region), iron ore stocks generally, potash producers, oil stocks (in particular), and even listed diamond stocks.
Investors are also showing distinct preference for Tier II gold stocks, led by the likes of Red Back, Eldorado, Randgold Resources, Iamgold, JSC Polymetal, Agnico-Eagle, and Golden Star, and also gold developers, or juniors, led by the likes of European Gold, Gabriel, Nuna Minerals, Avoca Resources, Kimber Resources, Mineral Deposits, Bralorne Gold, Austral Gold, Andean, and Leyshon Resources.
While it's possible to identify subsectoral leadership within the listed gold stocks universe, make no mistake about the mauling that investors have taken. The Tier II grouping has surrendered 71% of its value, equal to USD 54bn, in little more than three months. The good news is that the buyers are back; the average Tier II stock is trading 41% above its low stock price seen over the past 12 months, compared to the far more modest 27% displayed by the Tier I grouping.
Most of the erstwhile stars in the Tier I sector have fallen heavily from giddy heights. Goldcorp, which led the global listed gold stocks sector for good chunks of this past year, traded above USD 50 a share as recently as July, only to since fall by 64%. At this stage, Harmony and Kinross rank as the better performers among the Tier I group.
In mid-July, dollar crude oil prices peaked, and the dollar started to rally, creating a headwind for all dollar commodity prices. Fresh storms came by way of the credit markets crisis, which went into hysteria mode when erstwhile Wall Street investment bank Lehman Bros. filed for bankruptcy on 15 September. While that mess remains far from fully cleaned up, investors have been forced to now reckon with mounting evidence that the global economy is cooling at a more rapid pace than may previously have been thought. Holdings of physical gold bullion held on behalf of investors by SPDR Gold Trust ETF, the world's leading exchange traded fund for the metal, have fallen by USD 6.9bn in value in the past few months, shadowing the fall in the gold bullion price.
This past week has shown, however, that at least some investors are now prepared to bet that equity markets may have bottomed out, with 10 October seen as the bottom of a slough of despond. The past few days has seen strong flows of speculative investor cash into so-called mining juniors, including names in the gold sector. Just as investors are showing a distinct preference for Tier II over Tier I gold names, so gold juniors are demonstrably preferred over Tier III gold names such as Great Basin, Sino Gold, Western Goldfields, Kingsgate, and Minefinders.
|
Global tier I gold stocks |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
USD 18.97 |
-64.0% |
37.1% |
13.823 |
|
|
USD 20.00 |
-75.0% |
42.9% |
3.813 |
|
|
USD 7.42 |
-49.0% |
29.9% |
2.994 |
|
|
AUD 1.95 |
-55.7% |
28.3% |
2.822 |
|
|
USD 18.53 |
-62.3% |
33.1% |
6.498 |
|
|
CNY 3.09 |
-86.0% |
4.0% |
4.655 |
|
|
USD 23.44 |
-57.2% |
35.7% |
20.446 |
|
|
AUD 20.80 |
-48.6% |
25.7% |
6.230 |
|
|
USD 6.80 |
-65.3% |
46.6% |
4.442 |
|
|
USD 10.67 |
-61.1% |
55.8% |
7.030 |
|
|
USD 26.94 |
-53.2% |
25.9% |
11.893 |
|
|
USD 12.00 |
-72.0% |
33.3% |
3.299 |
|
|
USD 28.53 |
-77.6% |
28.1% |
10.954 |
|
|
USD 72.12 |
-28.2% |
9.3% |
17.641 |
|
|
Tier I averages/total |
|
-61.1% |
31.1% |
116.539 |
|
Weighted averages |
|
-63.3% |
28.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIER II |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
CNY 25.06 |
-82.9% |
9.9% |
1.288 |
|
|
USD 3.39 |
-67.5% |
52.7% |
1.002 |
|
|
ZAR 1.81 |
-72.4% |
23.1% |
0.193 |
|
|
USD 4.83 |
-75.8% |
45.9% |
3.379 |
|
|
CAD 0.12 |
-96.6% |
50.0% |
0.030 |
|
|
USD 4.20 |
-55.0% |
76.5% |
1.538 |
|
|
USD 28.59 |
-65.7% |
37.0% |
4.112 |
|
|
CAD 1.15 |
-92.8% |
27.8% |
0.204 |
|
|
USD 31.42 |
-44.2% |
41.0% |
2.401 |
|
|
CNY 32.16 |
-73.1% |
21.8% |
1.636 |
|
|
GBP 1.98 |
-88.3% |
26.6% |
0.259 |
|
|
USD 2.57 |
-80.4% |
20.7% |
0.328 |
|
|
USD 0.90 |
-79.2% |
40.6% |
0.174 |
|
|
CAD 17.27 |
-30.8% |
48.6% |
1.418 |
|
|
GBP 1.24 |
-78.5% |
22.6% |
1.435 |
|
|
USD 2.82 |
-71.4% |
182.0% |
0.888 |
|
|
CAD 5.45 |
-41.1% |
90.6% |
0.842 |
|
|
CAD 1.44 |
-85.2% |
35.8% |
0.250 |
|
|
CAD 0.81 |
-76.8% |
17.4% |
0.169 |
|
|
Tier II averages/total |
|
-71.5% |
45.8% |
21.546 |
|
Weighted averages |
|
-71.3% |
41.7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
TIER III |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
CAD 0.86 |
-79.2% |
72.0% |
0.096 |
|
|
CAD 1.33 |
-65.3% |
46.2% |
0.234 |
|
|
AUD 3.50 |
-54.0% |
47.7% |
0.675 |
|
|
CAD 4.85 |
-42.3% |
38.6% |
0.380 |
|
|
Highland |
GBP 0.33 |
-86.9% |
57.1% |
0.173 |
|
PanAust |
AUD 0.22 |
-82.4% |
37.5% |
0.210 |
|
AUD 2.60 |
-58.7% |
18.2% |
0.160 |
|
|
Int'l Mining |
CAD 2.84 |
-57.3% |
26.2% |
0.223 |
|
Allied Gold |
AUD 0.22 |
-78.5% |
16.2% |
0.058 |
|
First Uranium |
CAD 1.40 |
-88.3% |
37.3% |
0.150 |
|
Novagold |
CAD 3.44 |
-82.8% |
34.9% |
0.296 |
|
Gold Wheaton |
CAD 0.35 |
-81.1% |
-37.5% |
0.325 |
|
Oxus Gold |
GBP 0.10 |
-82.1% |
26.7% |
0.059 |
|
Pan African |
GBP 0.03 |
-72.2% |
0.0% |
0.049 |
|
Citigold |
AUD 0.20 |
-60.0% |
33.3% |
0.097 |
|
Jaguar |
CAD 4.16 |
-71.2% |
30.8% |
0.218 |
|
Pamodzi Gold |
ZAR 2.00 |
-88.1% |
185.7% |
0.019 |
|
Oceanagold |
AUD 0.26 |
-92.3% |
4.0% |
0.028 |
|
DRDGold |
ZAR 3.90 |
-62.0% |
15.7% |
0.148 |
|
GBP 0.02 |
-94.4% |
5.9% |
0.006 |
|
|
Resolute |
AUD 0.48 |
-80.3% |
4.3% |
0.119 |
|
Integra Mining |
AUD 0.12 |
-83.1% |
26.3% |
0.031 |
|
USD 28.94 |
-29.3% |
27.2% |
0.982 |
|
|
Chenzhou |
CNY 6.24 |
-85.7% |
4.9% |
0.488 |
|
Aurizon |
CAD 1.83 |
-66.3% |
51.2% |
0.222 |
|
Kazakh Gold |
USD 4.00 |
-86.6% |
14.6% |
0.173 |
|
CAD 4.26 |
-62.0% |
16.1% |
0.417 |
|
|
CAD 0.19 |
-90.5% |
90.0% |
0.080 |
|
|
Lingbao |
HKD 1.15 |
-82.3% |
43.8% |
0.044 |
|
Zhaojin |
HKD 2.76 |
-87.2% |
48.4% |
0.156 |
|
Rusoro Mining |
CAD 0.38 |
-84.0% |
47.1% |
0.122 |
|
CAD 5.77 |
-58.9% |
42.5% |
0.235 |
|
|
Andina Minerals |
CAD 0.94 |
-82.4% |
32.4% |
0.061 |
|
Crystallex |
CAD 0.45 |
-85.1% |
12.5% |
0.109 |
|
Tier III averages/total |
|
-74.8% |
34.1% |
6.844 |
|
Weighted averages |
|
-75.2% |
23.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DEVELOPERS |
Stock |
From |
From |
Value |
|
|
price |
high* |
low* |
USD bn |
|
Anatolia |
CAD 0.96 |
-85.1% |
21.5% |
0.065 |
|
CAD 0.85 |
-62.1% |
100.0% |
0.226 |
|
|
Norton Gold |
AUD 0.09 |
-86.2% |
14.8% |
0.026 |
|
CAD 1.96 |
-72.8% |
78.2% |
0.288 |
|
|
CAD 1.16 |
-91.0% |
41.5% |
0.050 |
|
|
Greystar |
CAD 1.00 |
-88.2% |
33.3% |
0.038 |
|
Medusa |
AUD 0.64 |
-58.8% |
15.5% |
0.061 |
|
Osisko |
CAD 1.94 |
-70.4% |
38.6% |
0.257 |
|
Central Rand |
ZAR 5.50 |
-73.2% |
10.0% |
0.137 |
|
Tamaya |
AUD 0.01 |
-95.3% |
0.0% |
0.012 |
|
CAD 1.52 |
-51.3% |
42.1% |
0.318 |
|
|
DKK 240.00 |
-58.6% |
49.5% |
0.044 |
|
|
CAD 0.98 |
-83.9% |
44.1% |
0.070 |
|
|
Detour Gold |
CAD 3.67 |
-85.6% |
28.3% |
0.135 |
|
Centamin Egypt |
CAD 0.51 |
-68.1% |
18.6% |
0.367 |
|
CAD 11.68 |
-66.8% |
55.7% |
0.357 |
|
|
Gold Reserve |
CAD 0.75 |
-87.5% |
92.3% |
0.035 |
|
Goldplat |
CAD 0.11 |
-46.8% |
29.2% |
0.019 |
|
AUD 1.48 |
-49.1% |
69.1% |
0.270 |
|
|
St Barbara |
AUD 0.23 |
-75.0% |
27.8% |
0.198 |
|
Jinshan |
CAD 0.52 |
-83.9% |
33.3% |
0.070 |
|
Metals Exploration |
GBP 0.09 |
-79.1% |
36.5% |
0.016 |
|
Mercator Gold |
GBP 0.03 |
-96.6% |
0.0% |
0.004 |
|
Archipelago |
GBP 0.07 |
-79.4% |
3.6% |
0.024 |
|
China Goldmines |
GBP 0.36 |
-77.7% |
0.0% |
0.028 |
|
GBP 0.14 |
-88.0% |
31.7% |
0.021 |
|
|
Apex Minerals |
AUD 0.25 |
-82.2% |
25.0% |
0.065 |
|
CAD 0.85 |
-50.6% |
16.4% |
0.149 |
|
|
B2GOLD |
CAD 0.37 |
-85.5% |
23.3% |
0.049 |
|
Beadell |
AUD 0.09 |
-81.0% |
54.1% |
0.006 |
|
CAD 0.90 |
-54.5% |
69.8% |
0.046 |
|
|
Aflease Gold |
ZAR 1.00 |
-69.3% |
22.0% |
0.053 |
|
Wits Gold |
ZAR 27.50 |
-84.7% |
3135.3% |
0.077 |
|
Uruguay Minerals |
CAD 0.50 |
-86.5% |
42.9% |
0.020 |
|
GBP 0.44 |
-42.8% |
81.3% |
0.043 |
|
|
AUD 0.60 |
-61.4% |
70.0% |
0.190 |
|
|
CAD 2.85 |
-67.6% |
38.3% |
0.134 |
|
|
CAD 0.85 |
-41.0% |
142.9% |
0.011 |
|
|
Buffalo Gold |
CAD 0.06 |
-94.3% |
83.3% |
0.005 |
|
Cassidy Gold |
CAD 0.07 |
-86.5% |
16.7% |
0.005 |
|
Colombia Goldfields |
CAD 0.05 |
-96.4% |
0.0% |
0.004 |
|
Coral Gold |
CAD 0.14 |
-90.6% |
40.0% |
0.003 |
|
Entrée Gold |
CAD 0.95 |
-71.3% |
90.0% |
0.073 |
|
Exeter Resources |
CAD 1.66 |
-72.0% |
58.1% |
0.068 |
|
Gitennes |
CAD 0.06 |
-88.0% |
22.2% |
0.002 |
|
Golden Goose |
CAD 0.14 |
-85.3% |
7.7% |
0.005 |
|
Grandview Gold |
CAD 0.09 |
-90.8% |
50.0% |
0.003 |
|
Kirkland Lake |
CAD 4.00 |
-72.6% |
58.7% |
0.182 |
|
MacMillan Gold |
CAD 0.16 |
-81.5% |
19.2% |
0.008 |
|
Molycor Gold |
CAD 0.04 |
-84.0% |
33.3% |
0.002 |
|
Moneta Porcupine |
CAD 0.05 |
-82.1% |
100.0% |
0.004 |
|
Nautilus Minerals |
CAD 1.00 |
-77.7% |
37.0% |
0.120 |
|
Navasota Resources |
CAD 0.27 |
-68.6% |
68.8% |
0.012 |
|
CAD 0.32 |
-74.4% |
0.0% |
0.007 |
|
|
CAD 0.09 |
-86.2% |
125.0% |
0.003 |
|
|
Rainy River |
CAD 1.00 |
-83.2% |
49.3% |
0.047 |
|
Reunion Gold |
CAD 0.05 |
-96.6% |
0.0% |
0.002 |
|
Searchgold Resources |
CAD 0.03 |
-89.1% |
20.0% |
0.003 |
|
Skyline Gold |
CAD 0.06 |
-75.5% |
33.3% |
0.004 |
|
Staccato Gold |
CAD 0.08 |
-78.9% |
66.7% |
0.006 |
|
Sunridge Gold |
CAD 0.17 |
-91.9% |
50.0% |
0.008 |
|
UC Resources |
CAD 0.05 |
-91.7% |
42.9% |
0.004 |
|
Yukon-Nevada |
CAD 0.04 |
-97.8% |
60.0% |
0.006 |
|
Tanami Gold |
AUD 0.01 |
-92.6% |
20.0% |
0.014 |
|
Tasman Goldfields |
AUD 0.06 |
-80.0% |
12.0% |
0.002 |
|
Focus Minerals |
AUD 0.02 |
-83.5% |
11.8% |
0.016 |
|
AUD 1.00 |
-44.4% |
25.0% |
0.044 |
|
|
AUD 0.12 |
-83.6% |
130.0% |
0.017 |
|
|
Regis Resources |
AUD 0.08 |
-92.7% |
27.0% |
0.013 |
|
Goldstar Resources |
AUD 0.04 |
-91.9% |
30.0% |
0.004 |
|
Gryphon Minerals |
AUD 0.10 |
-87.5% |
40.8% |
0.008 |
|
Barra Resources |
AUD 0.06 |
-87.8% |
22.4% |
0.009 |
|
Conquest Mining |
AUD 0.16 |
-81.2% |
6.7% |
0.029 |
|
Hill End Gold |
AUD 0.13 |
-76.0% |
13.6% |
0.025 |
|
Dioro Exploration |
AUD 0.40 |
-81.2% |
33.3% |
0.018 |
|
Shield Mining |
AUD 0.09 |
-76.4% |
6.3% |
0.003 |
|
Dragon Mining |
AUD 0.03 |
-83.3% |
0.0% |
0.012 |
|
Zedex Minerals |
AUD 0.03 |
-91.4% |
50.0% |
0.005 |
|
Red 5 |
AUD 0.04 |
-79.4% |
25.0% |
0.015 |
|
AUD 0.18 |
-79.1% |
12.5% |
0.018 |
|
|
AUD 0.64 |
-58.8% |
15.5% |
0.061 |
|
|
Hampton Hill |
AUD 0.22 |
-62.1% |
40.1% |
0.019 |
|
Navigator Resources |
AUD 0.16 |
-84.8% |
23.1% |
0.014 |
|
Keegan Resources |
CAD 0.80 |
-86.3% |
63.3% |
0.019 |
|
CAD 0.80 |
-80.7% |
23.1% |
0.043 |
|
|
Bear Creek Mining |
CAD 0.71 |
-92.4% |
22.4% |
0.032 |
|
AUD 0.20 |
-41.2% |
42.9% |
0.022 |
|
|
AUD 0.08 |
-67.9% |
7.1% |
0.010 |
|
|
CAD 0.80 |
-61.7% |
23.1% |
0.115 |
|
|
Linear Gold |
CAD 0.90 |
-71.0% |
38.5% |
0.021 |
|
Metallic Venture |
CAD 0.30 |
-88.8% |
39.5% |
0.013 |
|
Mundoro |
CAD 0.18 |
-86.2% |
20.0% |
0.006 |
|
Stratagold |
CAD 0.02 |
-96.3% |
100.0% |
0.003 |
|
Tyhee |
CAD 0.13 |
-82.2% |
52.9% |
0.018 |
|
Queenstown |
CAD 1.15 |
-70.0% |
51.3% |
0.050 |
|
Miranda |
CAD 0.26 |
-80.3% |
52.9% |
0.010 |
|
Mariana |
GBP 0.04 |
-65.2% |
10.3% |
0.004 |
|
Tribune Resources |
AUD 1.20 |
-45.5% |
41.2% |
0.040 |
|
Atna Resources |
CAD 0.35 |
-81.8% |
15.0% |
0.024 |
|
Condor Resources |
CAD 0.09 |
-94.9% |
80.0% |
0.002 |
|
Australian Solomons |
CAD 0.05 |
-94.7% |
42.9% |
0.003 |
|
Brazauro |
CAD 0.16 |
-82.8% |
10.7% |
0.011 |
|
NWM Mining |
CAD 0.06 |
-75.5% |
71.4% |
0.005 |
|
Geoinformatics |
CAD 0.02 |
-95.2% |
100.0% |
0.002 |
|
Hawthorne Gold |
CAD 0.19 |
-92.1% |
2.7% |
0.005 |
|
Inter-Citic |
CAD 0.29 |
-88.4% |
16.0% |
0.020 |
|
CAD 1.30 |
-45.8% |
18.2% |
0.047 |
|
|
Midway Gold |
CAD 0.36 |
-92.3% |
100.0% |
0.015 |
|
PMI Gold |
CAD 0.08 |
-77.3% |
50.0% |
0.005 |
|
Verena |
CAD 0.07 |
-85.2% |
62.5% |
0.005 |
|
Vior |
CAD 0.05 |
-80.0% |
100.0% |
0.003 |
|
Developer averages/total |
-77.4% |
67.6% |
5.460 |
|
|
Weighted averages |
|
-75.8% |
41.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Overall averages/total |
|
-74.0% |
55.4% |
132.748 |
|
Overall weighted averages |
-68.3% |
33.8% |
|
|
|
* 12-month |
|
|
|
|
|
Source: market data; tables compiled by Barry Sergeant |
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