Weekend read
posted on
Nov 23, 2008 06:36AM
Edit this title from the Fast Facts Section
By Reg Curren
Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Natural gas in New York rose as lower temperatures this week and next spark increased demand for the heating fuel and reduce stockpiles.
Colder-than-normal weather is probable from Texas to Maine through Dec. 4, according to the U.S. Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Maryland. About 52 percent of U.S. households rely on gas for heat, according to the Energy Department.
“Right now cold weather is trumping concern over the economy,” said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. “Given its druthers, this market should and will follow temperatures.”
Natural gas for December delivery rose 16.4 cents, or 2.6 percent, to settle at $6.48 per million British thermal units at 3:10 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The heating and industrial fuel gained 2.7 percent this week. Gas yesterday fell 6.3 percent on concern a U.S. recession will reduce demand. The current contract expires on Nov. 24.
“If we do get a cold end of November, it is setting the scene for a cold December, which was forecast a couple of months ago,” said Michael Haigh, Societe Generale’s head of U.S. commodities research in New York. “If that happens, there’s some upside potential.”
New York may see a low of 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 4 Celsius) by tomorrow, or about 14 degrees below normal, the National Weather Service said.
“We’re burning a lot of hydrocarbons at the moment,” said Beutel.
Cold Weather
Cold weather in large population areas like the Midwest and Northeast may be the dominant pattern into early December, according to forecaster MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather of Rockville, Maryland.
“A very chilly forecast continues here for the first part of December,” Matt Rogers, a meteorologist at EarthSat said in a note today.
The lower temperatures may bring a withdrawal of as much as 35 billion cubic feet in the current week, Martin King, an analyst at Calgary-based FirstEnergy Capital Corp. said in a report.
The typical change in inventories for this time of year is a decline of 14 billion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Department.
Supplies advanced 16 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 14 to 3.488 trillion cubic feet, the U.S. Energy Department said yesterday. Stockpiles are now 140 billion cubic feet higher than the five-year average for this time of year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Reg Curren in Calgary at rcurren@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 21, 2008 15:24 EST