Re: Of LBE, the financing, Nickel and general shorting
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 12, 2008 03:21PM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
"With regards to Nickel, I follow the charts. It's a curious story. Inventories keep rising, and rising and rising, but the price is not collapsing, as some had predicted. Where did the demand go? Has China slashed its demand? But how can that be when all reports inform us that steel and stainless steel demand in China is up, along with production? Have they simply substituted cheaper 'stainless' products that will corrode within three years? That would not be untipical. The whole thing doesn't make sense to me."
It is a curious story and definitely puzzling. However, the vast majority of nickel does not even hit the LME inventories (it is shipped directly to consumers), and I suspect the traders know a lot more than we peons do about what nickel is going to do in the future.
"I've always known from common sense that the markets are a dirty business, but didn't think it's all as dirty as it is. The aim is always to fleece the little guy. This would explain why the masses have such easy und unfettered access to the markets."
So absolutely true. We little guys are just along for the ride. I try not to go up against the big boys; I go against trends and make investment decisions slowly and after considerable research. I watched LBE after a co-worker invested in it and invested only after I did enough research to warrant an investment.
There is a considerable upside to this story, and, of course, a considerable downside to this story. Everyone will have their own analysis of their risk/reward curve and will make a decision accordingly. This may explain some of the selling lately-some investors (including funds) may have lost their stomach for this company and its future uncertainties.
We have some hurdles to jump in the short term and each of those could send us in to a tailspin if they fail. The financing, getting McWatters up on, or close, to schedule, and nickel prices remaining favorable (>$11/lb).
But below $1... I feel this company makes a great investment. Chance to lose everything, chance to turn your $1 in to $2 or so and a chance that it will roar up to $5+ in a couple of years. I will gladly put down $0.90 for a solid chance to receive several times my money.