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Message: Why are the Junior minors so down?

Why are the Junior minors so down?

posted on Jun 01, 2008 01:25PM

Thanks guys for all your posts.

Investor's digest has an interesting article in their May 30th edition.

Here is a little of the article written by David Chapman. Granted this is about gold and silver but comments of the overall economic events still seem interesting. One of our problems has been the decreasing Ni price but still - just something to think about it.

The world has been experiencing declining mine production and supply for some time .

The credit crunch that got underway last June 2007 has meant that the junior miners, considered the riskiest of the risky, have been shunned. When gold and silver prices started rising, the money flowed only to the large-cap, liquid names.

A number of hedge funds have been forced out of business as a result of the credit crunch, resulting in distressed sales of junior gold-mining stocks. As the stocks fell, more selling was attracted from weak players.

The collapse of SouthWestern Resources Cor (SWG-TSX, $0.54) in July 2007, on "deficiencies" and "errors in reported assay results" brought back memories of Bre-Ex, spooking many players in the sector.

More recently, mutual-fund selling, due to redemptions, has brought in more sellers in a generally illiquid market. On seeing the increase in sellers, market makers fade or sharply lower their bids.

The sector raised record funds for exploration in 2007. In a weak market, when the typical four-month hold expired, investors rushed to lock in profits or to sell into a depressed market.

The result of all of this activity is that only the committed remain in the market and the juniors are down and depressed. Many are now trading at values well below their asset value, which we define as their confirmed NI43-101 compliant, or legally reportable, resources in the ground. What is needed is something to spark the market. So what might that be? A significant find. Given the record amount of financings in 2007, there is a lot of drilling going on. While this is not guaranteed to eliminate the stink of South Western Resources it would help considerably.

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