Re: What does everyone want?
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 08, 2008 07:04PM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
Bluenoser,
We all have those fears
First, is the price of Nickel. I don't like the value of Ni right any more then you do. I think IMHO that there is a increase in supply of nickel and in the short term it may drop down to the 10 year mean but I see different latterite mines becoming uneconomic. I see us in the fall maybe being around $11 or $12.
I do know this, I believe we will pay our loans in time. Our secret for getting above the $4 level is diversity and increased production. IMHO, the first priority is short term to increase production and feed the mill. We have to diversify beyond just Ni and that could very well be Groves and McAra. If I can find the sheet I will reprint it when I get back home. It was an analyst writing about ROK mines last year when it was sitting at $1. It really succinctly described what analysts look for.
Will we generate the cash flow we need for development and operations, in order to get the ore out of the ground, processed and sold? Yes, but right now it is tight. As we get deeper into the ramp options will open up. As I understand It, it is accelerated production to full production. The company cannot make promises about these increases in case they don't meet exactly our expectations. The market will not forgive them. It really is amazing the contacts Gary has and how he is able to use them when the need arises. (He got the Chinese to lend money to get the mill built early at half the price of a new one in less then 1/2 the time of ordering a new one. He was able to cut down the size of his most recent loan. There are people backing us. )
Can we avoid a takeover. I may be naive but here goes. If Xstrata had wanted us because of the mill, they would have taken us over by now. McWatters is not ready for production. It has
" the project has a potential mine life of 28 months, achieving full production by month 12. Full production is targeted at 36,000 tonnes per month (tpm) or 1,200 tonnes per day (tpd). Development is scheduled for the first 11 months, producing pre-production ore by month 6 at an average pre-production rate of 7,900 tpm. Month 1 of the schedule commenced January of 2008. " This is a small project in their books. Now Hart could be our company maker. They could be quite interested in it. Why would they be interested in us until we develop this project more. We are drilling down to the 700 m level. We have the two extra points of interest. Juniors are in this world to develop projects for majors to be interested in or ignored. Our geologists are developing the property, the time and effort is better for the juniors to do then for the majors to do. Western Keltic got bought out when they were unable to finance their project. Sherwood Copper bought them out only after Western Keltic explored all other options. At this moment in time - Dr Nash and company want Liberty to succeed and I don't think they see our situation as hopeless. They look at our company and their ambition is to make our company into a bigger company. They look at the share price too and they want more value too. To sell it now IMHO is highway robbery.
I liked your last lines Bluenoser I feel that Ni prices will not sink any lower, but I don't know. World events and economic conditions have established an environment that is different than we have seen before. I don't know if anyone can predict what will happen to nickle prices in this environment. When I look at the big picture, it seems to me that an increasing or even stable nickle price (at $12 or more say) makes a lot of the uncertainties go away. And if it makes me feel more confident, then maybe it will make the market more confident.