Liberty
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 25, 2008 01:32AM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
There are two sides to each coin. As we look at the economy we see bad news. Go back to our last financing - you will see that our share was trading at exactly the same way. We were all bound by the same fears. As JohnEStrom says, some of our input costs - diesel are 20% cheaper. Our Cdn dollar is also no worth about $0.80 to the US dollar. So when we look at our cost estimates for McWatters, our cash flow will be changing too.
Mines closing around us - FNX, FNI, UMJ - all 3 mines do not have any mill and are going through Xstrata for processing their ores. If we go by how we get paid - about 70% is advanced up front and then 3 months later the bill is settled. FNX was processing about 2500 tpd. This starts to be a very big bill when Ni prices are falling. Hence the decision to go into care and maintenance. We were processing 200 tpd at Redstone and milling the ore first and then sending it down to Xstrata for the smelter. Most of our costs were up front when we mined and milled on site. So our costs are realized for that portion on a current basis. Our final bill, to settle with Xstrata, I would assume to be much smaller, relatively speaking.
Now, our company has deferred most exploration and any expenses they can until the cash flow is in hand. I will assume that they have been making decisions based on falling Ni prices. Our production is now double through our mill which means we are seeing cost savings there. The company talked in terms of selling surplus equipment. Some of that money is potentially there. So, although things look bleak, they may be tight but not impossible. We are now at the end of Oct. Full production was to be in Dec and the high grade ore is to be reached in about Jan/Feb. From all of the above - we are making it through everything. When we get to the rich grade our cost is $3.50 US not cdn. ROE is playing there too.
We as shareholders, sit in a vacuum. We get blasted by the news and just get to pick up pieces of info. Our company is not closed and people have bought shares on the way down and may very well to sell shares and go into other things. We all manage our risks in various ways. If portfolios are 100% Lbe - then maybe some of those shares are being sold. This is the point of the bull boards. We give ourselves different arguments. Sometimes we post our fears too because we help each other a little too. John E Strom puts his sanity out there. Traps puts his perspective as an exLiberty shareholder buying in at great prices. Vanchester and Mikeyman puts their perspective - much like mine of shareholders averaging down their costs.
What we have control of is our own shares. No one else's. I think there is still hope for Lbe and I think we will make it through.