Re: Care and Maintenance.....
posted on
Nov 02, 2008 10:04AM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
We won't find an exploration company near us interested in buying in to LBE. Their cash is too precious, they need it to make it through however long this low point in the global economy lasts and nickel prices rise back to where they make mining in Canada and in the Shaw Dome profitable. Maybe a producer will buy in to us, but we'd be lucky to get a stock deal worth 10 cents per share.
If nickel prices rise above $7 in the near future, then acquiring Liberty Mines is a good investment. If they don't, then whoever acquires us has the heavy cost of servicing our debt (or paying it off with their own precious cash reserves) and paying to maintain the closure of our mill and mines. This will run many millions of dollars per year and if the expectation is that nickel prices will not recover for a year or two, this pushes the cost of acquiring Liberty Mines to the point where it isn't a worthwhile investment.
I expect that we will not find a favourable deal and will end up having to declare bankruptcy and our debtors will claim the bulk of our assets. Once the dust settles and everyone is paid that is in line for the spoils (Salman, JJNICL, employees, vendors, etc), we shareholders will be left with nothing. And at this point, a neighbour or a large producer will be able to pick up our assets for far less than we would accept for them now as our debtors will be looking to unload our assets for whatever they can get for them. The vultures are swirling and they have certainly already spoken to Salman and JJNICL about an offer once we default. I bet even Salman and JJNICL won't get 100 cents on the dollar for their debt.
Gary Nash may still have a rabbit left in his hat, but I'd be amazed if it gave us any value for our shares. We gambled against the commodity markets and lost and this is why investing in the mining sector is such risky business. Diversify and spread the risk. For every few losers there is a big winner.