Re: ...Wow, A Loaded Question
posted on
Feb 14, 2009 10:49PM
Producing Mines and "state-of-the-art" Mill
Sadly, you've hit the nail on the head JES. Liberty Mines might find a way out of this mess, but I don't think it's going to end up putting any value in our pockets as shareholders. The nickel market isn't showing any signs of recovery and it could be another year or two (or more) before we see prices even approach those necessary to contemplate firing up operations again. By then, our remaining cash will be long gone and our creditors will be dicing our properties up in to bite-sized chunks and selling them to the lowest bidder. This may end up being one of our neighbours that takes advantage of a cheap purchase and scoops up a few talented managers in the deal, but that would also require them to have the available cash to make the deal happen and be prepared to sit on the property for some time (years) before markets improve enough to restart operations. They'd get two functioning mines, a great prospective property (Hart), a mill and some other potential properties for a fraction of what it cost us to develop them.
I can't see JJNICL saving our bacon. It's too expensive to pay off our debts and assume the cost of keeping operations suspended indefinitely. They could buy the company for the cost of their own debt and the Salman debt and wipe shareholders out, but paying $40+ million for what we have right now in these markets is pretty steep, especially with an ongoing cost of several million dollars per year to keep the properties ready to continue operations.
In almost any scenario, unfortunately, we shareholders are left with a raw deal... another company would have to buy our operations almost at book value in order for we shareholders to receive any net proceeds... and with nickel down at $5, our assets will only be worth a few pennies on the dollar. Our only hope is for a dramatic increase in the price of nickel in the next few months (to $10/lb) so that we can restart operations, build up some cash and be in a position to make some deals to get through the expiry dates of our loans. $0.10 per share is probably an appropriate price to pay for this chance... though I expect our share price to start its death spiral fairly soon.