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Message: More Tesla Speculation

I understand your position, however I struggle to see, how could TSLA finance such integration. It just does not make any economical sense. To integrate entire battery production, one has to buy a Lithium mine, build a processing factory and build battery cell factory. All that to supply Lithium to an entity, which produce what? 400k cars annually?  Shangai operation does not count, because they are entitled to use local supplier for the batteries. That left us with Fremont and potentially that factory in Germany, once it is build. I don’t see, why would anyone source an European factory with cells from Nevada. Even Musk is not that crazy.

 

Battery cells is a commodity with thin margins and huge volume. On top of that, everyone is looking for some breakthrough to make batteries more efficient. Today investment can be easily written off couple years down the road. On top of that, TSLA is struggling with cash. They can once or twice a year ask investor for additional cash (2-3 bill in the total) to finance their losses, not sure they can get more money to invest into area completely outside of their specialization.

It is a nice dream, but it will not happen.

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