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Message: Re: Sound like kids.

Cal
May 19, 2020 10:02AM

 

It all depend, what you consider a „serious appreciation“. IMHO, there are at 2 forces which can move LAC. The most important one is the inflation. FED is going to print a bambilions of USD to support not the economy after COVID, but the stock exchange. So the price level will surely go up. Lot of people think, that Lithium is a strategic element and the Thacker Pass is the most significant source in the US.  That may return us back to $6 quite soon. But that is just a speculative money.

 

Second force is the development at Cauchari-Olaroz. In about 2 weeks time, they can re-open the site again. We got 90 days delay, so count on production to start sometimes June 2021. Despite bolt projections from Joe Lowry (I am sorry, I cannot resist aka Chinese PR agent in place) the Lithium price is not going back to $12/kg. Not now and likely not ever. Looking at my “financial modeling made on an old used envelope”, production of 10.000 tons at the end of next year may add another $3 to the shareprice.

 

I don’t have my crystal ball handy, so I don’t see any further than end of 2021. However despite seeing LAC going up, I am not buying any further, just in a case I am wrong :-). Some of my funds I have allocated to EPR due to its extraordinary valuation but that is for another debate.  

 

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May 19, 2020 03:19PM

May 19, 2020 03:47PM
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