Outcome of DFS
posted on
Jun 18, 2020 03:07AM
I have a debate with John E. on that "evil" forum. I just wonder, what is your opinion about it?
Pavel: John E. here is an question: Assuming that LAC release the feasibility study about the Thacker Pass, it would likely trigger an upward pressure, maybe even towards $6. Can you have a look into your crystal ball and tell me, if it is a good idea to sell into this news? Or would you wait couple of days? The study itself is just a paper, but all these Tesla funs may go ballistic about LAC. What do you think?
John E.: I hope you see this quickly because the bad-news Nazis on this board will try to get Yahoo to suppress it. Here goes…. IN MY OPINION, I don't see the feasibility study for Thacker Pass being any different (or better for that matter) than the earlier one done for the property closer to Reno. Nothing came of it except for a little Lithium drilling mud revenue which collapsed in 2020. Even if this is the biggest deposit in the world mining labor costs overwhelms all other cost variables and the material still has to ship to China for the next 5 steps of processing-to-distribution. . In the US, Molycorp is the test case for producing rare earth metals (see WIKI).
Politically, unless Trump declares Lithium a necessary domestic product and subsidizes vertical integration of Lithium mining-to-distribution, this field sits undeveloped along with LAC's other US properties. From a financial perspective, LAC searches for other investors instead of accumulating their own funds for immediate development and wants to make their money as a resource rights owner. Lastly, China wields overwhelming economic advantage of Lithium. This is a global business plan with intense government backing.
Personally, I have not yet sold into this most recent rise because it has been difficult accumulating the stock when it dips. The Longs have bragging rights here. $5.50 to $6? It’s gone since I think there will be a few of these swan dives until a Covid19 vaccine is available. It is Southern Hemisphere winter now and all of these countries are getting hit hard with the virus.
Follow up question: Anyone here who sees into the LAC future processing factory bit more than I do? If the above is correct, then my own LAC investment thesis is collapsing as I was not accumulating a mining company but an chemical company. Does not hurt finantially, but the potential is then much smaller.