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Message: Re: From Matt.

Cal
Jun 25, 2020 09:15AM
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Jun 25, 2020 10:09AM
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Jun 25, 2020 10:56AM
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Jun 25, 2020 02:14PM
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Jun 25, 2020 02:29PM
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Cal
Jun 26, 2020 09:16AM
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Jun 26, 2020 10:06AM
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Jun 27, 2020 09:21AM
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Cal
Jun 28, 2020 11:41AM
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Jun 28, 2020 02:04PM

 

OK, lets have a look at my aging envelope model:

 

Assuming that Thacker pass would eventually produce 60k tons per year. Even with today pricing of 7,9/kg (l. hydroxide), that is approximately $470 mil. + plus some biproducts, which we can discuss after the DFS. Assuming costs of $4kg + some OH we are at something around $200 mill EBIDA. LAC won’t make it alone, they will sell half of TP (similar effect will have share dilution), so I count half of EBIDA.  Add to this some $90 mil. From Cauchari-Olaroz to arrive into $180 mill EBIDA or $2/share.

 

SQM as a regional benchmark has PE of 28 and pays around 4% dividends. Hence my envelope says $56/share for LAC. Now I am not saying, it will happen. All I am saying that there may be a scenario for LAC to be north of $30 and since they may be cash positive in about 10 years or so, the dividend may be an option. I may need another envelope once DFS is published, but till then I won’t bother, there are also some less “rosy” scenarios on that envelope, but no point to debate them till we get new dose hoppium.

 

 

 

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