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Message: Albemarle to shutter two lithium facilities in the US

 

Which allows me to raise the same question over there too? Where is the Lithium market growth hiding? Another year almost gone (well sort of) and pricing of Li2CO3 are still approaching lower and lower levels (source: London metal exchange), therefore it is logical, that high cost facilities are closing down.

 

Both, Cauchari-Olaroz and the Thacker Pass do have production costs slightly below $4/kg, so optically it looks well. However the DFS of C-O assumes revenue of $12/kg, which is totally out of the picture.

 

I usually take Livent as an industrial benchmark. Livent had in last quarter-to-date a gross margin of 18%. Practically entire gross margin is taken by the Overheads. Additionally, Livent sells Lithium Hydroxide, which is slightly more expensive than Li2CO3, supposedly produced by C-O.

 

Eventually, we can blame the "china virus" for this year, however Livent lives on long term contracts in China and the EV segment is not (according to TSLA) slowing down. New battery factories are announced  frequently. To make it short, despite all those rosy projections about BEV, the Lithium price is depressed, which can only mean, that warehouses are full of Lithium nobody wants.

 

Net, net, the financial part of C-O DFS needs definitely a revision (to put the message nicely). A disclosure of the offtake deal with Ganfeng would also be nice. The share price of LAC obviously does not agree with me. But recent sprint is driven by hoppium and rumors about the Thacker Pass not fundamentals.

 

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