Improbability vs Logic , Pumping vs Circumspection
posted on
Aug 14, 2020 08:35AM
Contrast the 2020 Q1 bullet points with those released this morning, 14 August 2020, in regard to 2020 Q2.
I posted the Q2 results in a previous post this morning.
Below are bullet points from the Q1 report:
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8 May 2020 Lithium Americas posted 2020-Q1 results for their Thacker Pass lithium claystone project in northern Nevada:
Thacker Pass Lithium Project (“Thacker Pass”):
Again, I want to draw attention to anyone interested that the LAC Q1 report clearly stated:
"the DFS is on track to be completed by mid-2020." Of course, now that date has been extended to Q4 of 2020.
I think Pavel has a great point in that regarding potential financing partners for LAC.
Who, in their right mind, would want to secure a financing plan with LAC before the release of the Thacker Pass Definitive Feasibility Study? I can't imagine any financial partner saying: "Oh, we know the DFS will be out soon, but we can't wait that long to extend $$$$$$$$$$$$ to invest in Thacker Pass, so here is the $$$$$$$$$."
Obviously there are some individual investors elsewhere pumping LAC who will promote the idea of LAC securing financing prior to the release of the DFS for Thacker Pass, regardless of how little sense that sequence makes in the real world.
Real financial partners will not disregard the new "Timeline" regardless of how much some others might insist on that impossible occurence. The same individuals have insisted that by close of market today LAC will be at $10 to $12 a Share. Not that I would complain if such an improbability should become reality, but I have more faith in the possibility that someone will plant a money tree in my back yard this morning and that by midnight tonight I will be able to harvest a full crop of $100 bills.
Epithets will fly in the wind on TOB without limit towards any who suggest that a financial deal before the release of the DFS is illogical and improbable.
The logic lies in the position proposed by Pavel here on this Hub: DFS first and after that event, then the greater probability of financing partners appearing for Thacker Pass.
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Contrast the bullet point form the Q2 2020 report with the bullet point from the Q1 2020 report.
Q2:
"The Company continues to explore financing options for Thacker Pass’ construction, including the possibility of a joint venture partner."
Q1:
"The Company is exploring financing options for Phase 1 construction, including the possibility of a joint venture partner at Thacker Pass.”
There is essentially no difference. That "exploration" for financing and for a JV partner will continue until after LAC can offer either the DFS or a contract with an end user or both.
Then the can attract financing offers. I'm not ruling out a contract with an end user, but LAC's stated goal of having a battery factory on campus at Thacker Pass would seem to limit the likelihood of a contract with a 3d party end user... if one takes the statement by LAC seriously that a battery factory will ultimately be in service on campus at Thacker Pass.