One step forward and one step back... Seeking Alpha article
posted on
Oct 06, 2020 02:14PM
Rich Smith scores 1 Up and loses 1 for a Net Score of ZERO in the article linked below. I believe his comments about the miniscule, at this point, Tesla tabless battery Chinese competitor (CBAT) and his comment about PLL are interesting and thought provoking.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/10/06/why-piedmont-lithium-and-cbak-energy-technology-st/
On the other hand, his rationale for the big dip in LAC stock price today, 6 October 2020, is that PLL has a signed contract to provide Tesla with lithium and LAC does not... so that is the reason PLL continues to go UP and why the bubble burst today on LAC.
So what is wrong with that reasoning since, in fact, PLL did go up and LAC did drop back by 9.2% at the time I am writing this ( 11 AM Pacific )? The problem in Rich Smith's analysis is that LAC doesn't have to sell lithium to Tesla. Just because they both have operations in Northern Nevada, that fact doesn't mean that LAC has only one option regarding a potential buyer of their future lithium production. If Tesla can sign contracts to purchase lithium from a North Carolina mine then that confirms that any lithium consumer company in North America can cross state lines to purchase their own requirement for lithium carbonate and/or lithium hydroxide.
The Thacker Pass facility, as shown on maps of Humboldt County, Nevada, is not far from Interstate 80 and Thacker Pass will have a railroad connection directly to its future location. Road and rail transport mean that it can be shipped anywhere their product is needed. There is absolutely no reason to limit Thacker Pass sales to a Tesla consumer and LAC probably would not limit their production to one customer anyway... that would mean very limited options for LAC and put them in a bind of being totally dependent on the whim and fortunes of Tesla. I believe Jon Evans has better eyesight than signing such a restrictive deal with Tesla or anyone else. I think his vision incorporates the idea of having multiple customers for the lithium to be produced at Thacker Pass. After all, he would only be following the example of Elon Musk himself. Musk for sure has made public the fact that he will have multiple suppliers of lithium to his factories. There is no pretense on his part of depending on only one lithium mining company. Why should Jon Evans be any different?
In fact, that might just have been a "sticking point" in the craw of Elon Musk. Who knows? We don't have that information. My prognostication for how this whole deal is going to play out is that Elon will be kicking himself for not making some sort of a deal with Evans and LAC.