Re: LAC October Presentation
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 21, 2020 04:47AM
Beautiful sarcasm, Pavel, about buying all the salt that they can.
As for going into production, I think it is really clear from the table I presented previously that since it reflects no revenue at Cauchari-Olaroz until 2022 and other parts of the same document refer to production starting "early 2022" that there will be no production in 2021. This can has been kicked down the road before, from 2019 to H1 of 2020 then on to H2 of 2020 and then on to H1 of 2021 ( A Feb 7, 2020 Bloomberg article: The Project remains on budget and schedule to commence production in early 2021)... now to early 2022. This was "the stick" and the "Carrot" was the increase in production tailor made to the individual Rx of each of the consumers... but in reality that means to the specifications of Ganfeng to the large part and to the smaller dictates of Bangchak Corporation.
According to an article published in NS Energy earlier this year the Off Take breakdown is:
LAC entered an off-take agreement with Ganfeng and Bangchak in January 2017. Ganfeng will purchase 70% LAC’s stake in the mine, which may increase to 80% only when Bangchak’s 15% off-take is effective.
However, we know from the recent document presented this week that Ganfeng's Off Take net % is now up to 75%, so if Bangchak's Off Take has not increased since February of this year then the total Off Take currently in view for the "early 2022" is now 90% of the total production, possibly increasing to 95% once Bangchak's Off Take is in effect by increasing Ganfengs all the way to 80%.... unless, of course, the can gets kicked farther down that same road again to, say, H2 of 2022?
I think most of the long time investors are probably still convinced that "eventually" production at Cauchari-Olaroz will begin... but just how many times LAC can kick that same can without investor rebellion is an unanswered question at this point, but still a valid question. Undoubtedly at least some of the troops are rattled by LAC's kick the can action, especially since it is a sequential action instead of a one time kick.
I keep telling myself that when, not "if", we finally do reach production then that part about selling Lithium according to the Off Take agreements will highlight that "at then current market price" portion of the agreement and that this prolonged drive to production will finally be "worth it" and as investors, like children on a long drive, we can finally quit bleating: "Are we there yet?" Sorry, just a little bitterness coming out as I have felt somewhat like the "can" being kicked and not in a metaphorical way. Okiedo