Before you invest in any company, you should have an investment thesis and future catalysts events that have the potential to propel your chosen security to your target thesis price level.  When I originally invested in LAC (early 2018), the investment thesis was obvious to me.  The world is moving to renewable energy for cars, buses, trucks and the entire energy grid in the foreseeable future.  All of this change requires lithium and current lithium projects in production can’t support this massive renewable energy shift.  I believe there will be a severe shortage of lithium as early as 2023 but definitely by 2025.  That is my LAC investment thesis, right or wrong and up for debate if you want.  When I looked into every possible lithium company to invest in, only one company stood miles ahead of all others vs. their current price levels.  That company is Lithium Americas (LAC) and listed below are my high-level thesis supporting facts and future catalysts events that I believe will propel LAC to my original target investment thesis price level of $20-$30+:

•         LAC is expected to go live with two massive lithium projects in 2022-2023.  Their Argentina project (C-O / 49% ownership / $750M NPV) is fully funded and their Nevada project (TP / 100% ownership / $2.6B NPV) is close to being fully funded (details below)
•         The LAC Thacker Pass (TP) project literally sits on top of an extinct volcano full of lithium.  It is the second largest known lithium deposit in the world.  Argentina (C-O) is a nice project for LAC but the future of LAC and their share price sits primarily with the successful approval and production launch of their Thacker Pass project

Future catalyst events:

•         LAC Q3 earnings release on 11/10/20 (target date) – They usually announce project updates with their quarterly earnings release.  Could move the stock up or down
•         Release of the final BLM EIS (Per federal mandate, this has to occur sometime prior to 1/5/21)
•         Release of the BLM record of decision (Per federal mandate, this has to occur sometime prior to 2/5/21 &/or 30-days after the final EIS is released).  Once this BLM ROD is published, LAC can immediately start construction at Thacker Pass. 
•         Release of the updated Thacker Pass DFS (Q42020 – Q12021) – This could be huge! 
• Thacker Pass funding &/or joint venture partner is secured and announced (Q1 2021?) – This will be huge!!
•        Details released on the Thacker Pass battery factory plans?  Who else is involved?
•        Thacker Pass phase I construction begins (1H 2021)
•         Construction complete at the Cauchari-Olaroz project (2H 2021).  Plant commissioning and production begins, target date pending company COVID-19 impact assessment)
•         Thacker Pass construction is complete. Plant commissioning and phase I production begins (1H 2023)
•         Lithium prices increase significantly in 2022 as forecasted by key industry players like Benchmark Minerals
•        Details and market release of LAC Next-Gen All Solid-State batteries (date TBD)

LAC does have some execution risk as well.  Listed below are the big ones:

•        Demonstrated commercial scale production of high purity lithium sulfate from Thacker Pass clay (date TBD – DFS?).  Extracting lithium from Clay has never been done on a commercial scale.  LAC needs to confirm this technology before their stock price can be fully valued.
•         COVID-19 construction delays – Argentina has been slightly impacted to date but this may have the potential to impact Thacker Pass?
•        Balance Sheet Concerns – With production delays down in Argentina, will LAC have enough cash on their balance sheet to start paying interest payments on outstanding loans/lines of credit?  I suspect their recently announced $100M ATM offering will solve this risk but it is still something to keep an eye on
•        Future stock dilution – How is LAC going to fund construction at Thacker Pass?  Is their recently announcement $100M ATM offering a one off or just the start of future dilution?  Lots of TP funding options will be made available to LAC but I don’t like future stock dilution

Successful completion of these key corporate milestones and mitigation of the risks will propel this stock to $30+ in the next few years.  LAC is an incredible company that is once again literally sitting on top of an extinct VOLCANO full of Lithium in Nevada.  Do your own research but please let me know if you agree or not.  GO LAC!!

WB