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Message: Re: Patience 2.0
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Nov 09, 2020 10:29PM

Nov 10, 2020 10:01AM
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Nov 10, 2020 05:33PM

Nov 10, 2020 05:36PM

Pavel:  " Even conversion of half of annual volume of new light vehicles would almost surely crash the electricity distribution in the US. The network is in a bad shape today, I cannot imagine, it would be able to transport such volume even if all those power stations would exists."

Pavel, I don't disagree with you.  I previously stated that 50% conversion by 2030 was probably stretching it, but your statement about the network ( I am assuming you are referring to the 3 Power Grids in the U.S. ) being in bad shape is, of course, correct.  That is where the imagination and vision comes into play.  Indeed, transporting such volume would be an immense task, but what if there was instead a tremedous expansion of neighborhood grids based on neighborhood PV, Wind or Geothermal generation?  Local situations dictate what alternative form of energy generation would be most appropriate since, for example, geothermal would only be appropriate for certain small geographical locations.  Same for limitations on wind energy generation, wave generation and solar generation.  One size would not fit all, but with the numerous different choices of alternative energy generation many locations would have at least one form available.  Microgrids, neighborhood grids could be formed and relieve pressure off of the large regional grids.  This, in fact, is the plan elsewhere in the world as I am sure you are well aware.  

I believe that new forms of energy generation will mandate new forms of power transmission, much in the vein of "Necessity is the Mother of Invention".  If we box up this problem into using large regional grids then we are creating huge problems for those grids, but if we use the existing grids in an improved status in concert with thousands of microgrids and neighborhood grids then maybe we have a solution to the larger problem.  Just throwing this out there for consideration, because microgrids and neigborhood grids are, in fact, starting to be utilized. 

Another thing to consider is a possible solution for the large regional grids to allow those high voltage lines to carry more energy more safely:  High Temperature Super Conductor cables.  This is being done in Germany and has been a project for decades by American Superconductor (AMSC).  The priciple is that the closer you get to absolute Kelvin the less resistance there is in cable or wire to the flow of electrons.  What AMSC found out decades ago is that you don't have to keep the cable at absolute Kelvin, you can raise the temp to a higher value and still get marvelous efficiency in transmitting electricity.  Since the closer you get to absolute Kelvin the more expensive it is to keep that Low temperature extreme it becomes apparent that sacrificing a little bit and achieving a higher temp ( although this "High Temp" is still -250 degrees C. or somewhere in that range ) is done with less expense and sacrifices little in the efficiency of transmission.

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-superconductor-technology-transmission-grid.html#:~:text=With%20more%20than%20one%20kilometer%20length%2C%20the%20AmpaCity,of%20Essen%20with%20a%20voltage%20of%2011%20kV.

AMSC claims:  "AMSC’s Resilient Electric Grid applications with high temperature superconductor (HTS) wire take up less space and transmit up to 10 times more power, allowing bulk transfer of transmission-level power at distribution voltages."

https://www.amsc.com/

I was an AMSC investor something like 25 years ago.  I never made any money out of it, since AMSC advances took "forever" and had lots of obstacles along the way.  I believe that AMSC actually came out of the work previously of a married pair of Physicist whose name now escapes me, but the research that they did on "High Temperature" transmission lines was the cutting edge.  I believe that the problems that AMSC ran into in trying to make it commercially feasible centered around having problems stopping all the leaks that occured with the use of liquid nitrogen to keep the "High Temperature" cables from losing their very low temps needed to take advantage of the near absolute Kelvin phenomeon of such high efficiency in conduction of power. 

I always smiled when I saw that phrase:  "High Temperature", because it really brought home how much "High Temperature" and "Low Temperature" are relative concepts because what AMSC called "High Temperature" would have frozen a human solid in less than a second, yet it was "High Temperature" relative to absolute Kelvin.

Bottom line, Pavel:  Never underestimate how much Necessity is the Mother of Invention.

Certainly the Germans haven't forgotton the advantages of "High Temperature" Grids.

Okiedo

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