Re: All the mines Tesla needs to build 20 million cars a year

I sort of expected your reply ahead of time, Pavel.  You always look at the back side of any painting.

Let me address the 11 cents per kWh issue first.  You assume that our rubber stamping PUC won't collude here in Nevada with Nevada Energy anytime during the life of our initial 20 year contract to increase the cost to consumers for electricity above and beyond the 11 cents rate.  While your assumption may in fact turn out to be true, my assumption runs counter to yours based on the actions of our politicized PUC in the past.

  The Nevada PUC at one point and in one swoop took away much of the financing over time benefit, nearly all, for those who purchased solary energy packages for their home when they eliminated the buy back advantage for those who owned their own package.  Obviously there are many different viewpoints on whether or not the utility companies should be required to buy back any hours generated by the homeowners solar array above and beyond the consumption level of the home, but the fact is that thousands of Nevada home solar owners purchased expensive solar power packages based on the fact that they could finance their purchase with the return on their excess generated electricity and the Nevada PUC colluded with Nevada Energy and did it in one swoop.  That decision was rescinded after the whirlwind generated among Nevada citizens, both those who owned home solar and those who didn't, but it did show that their was considerable risk for those who decided to purchase their own system.  That is why I went the contract routhe of renting the system so that I had a guaranteed kWh price written into the contract and as a result I was protected from any future collusion between the Nevada PUC and Nevada Energy.

This whole issue centers around a concept called:  Net Metering.  I would advise anyone purchasing home solar to know ahead of time what the situation is in their State regarding Net Metering before making a purchase of a solar package for their home.  My understanding, and I may be wrong, is that trades82 has already puchased his solar package and hopefully he has already thoroughly investigated "Net Metering" as it applies to his particular situation.

If there is an Achilles Heel in buying Solar for your home then the politics of the State where you live is probably the most vulnerable chink in the armour.

Just as an aside, Nevada Energy buys electricity for less than 3 cents a kWh from one of their generation sources in Southern Nevada and while its other sources may be a little higher than that none approach the 11 cents a kWh level, so there is substantial profit margin for Nevada Energy existing at present, even with our low consumer rate 11 cents a kWh.

SolarCity To Leave Nevada After PUC Cuts Rooftop Solar Benefits | SEIA

Nevada solar industry collapses after state lets power company raise fees | Solar power | The Guardian

Carson City judge: Solar owners weren’t properly notified their rates would be changed | RecordCourier.com

Up to the Minute News:  My wife just interrupted my time on the computer to tell me that our electricity bill from Nevada Energy last month was $88.  I don't know at present what we were charged from Tesla, but she confirms that the range for our combined bill, including the natural gas bill comes to a little less than $100 per month for the lowest months to a maximum of $175 in the most expensive months.  I can live with that range for total power bills, however my decision to purchase a contract with Solar City ( subsequently the contract was picked up by Tesla ) was a protection against arbitrary future collusion of th Nevada PUC with Nevada Energy.  My decision was entirely based on a distrust of that evil twosome.  Now, if PUC again rubber stamps any move by Nevada Energy then I at least have some partial protection in the form of my guaranteed 6,800 kWh at 11 cents an hour from Tesla.  So, Pavel, you are not the only one who turns the painting over to see the back side of the painting before buying it.

Second, regarding your critique about the energy consumption of the average house.  The 1,000 kWh per month figure is in reference to a 2,000 square foot home and you did not state the size of your home.  Certainly the number of occupants is a key factor, but so is the size of the home, the number and characteristics of the "loads" on the electric system, your insulation ( presumed to be very good, considering the latitude of your home ) and the useage characteristics of the occupants.  One of my "occupants" seems to take 3 showers a day and this adds up.  Another occupant on an intermittent basis, grandson, seems to do the same.  When those 2 are not in the house then our electricity drain on the grid and on our solar system is reduced.  

I also don't know anything about the "average" electricity consumption for a similar sized home with a similar occupancy rate in your neighborhood.  Comparing your house energy consumption to mine would be a case of apples to oranges so that any comparison should be made using figures from your neighbors.  I can tell you that monthly energy bills for a similar size home to mine here in the desert will ordinarily be anywhere from $200 per month to an extreme of $600 per month depending largely on whether or not they have Central Heating and Air.  We do have some homes that use wood stoves for heating and even for cooking, but keep in mind that wood isn't exactly plentiful in the desert so that the price of a cord of wood would probably be significantly higher to consumers here in desert as opposed to the Northern portions of New York State.

3d, some consumers are more frugal with their consumption of electricity and all other goods and services as opposed to their less frugal counterparts in the same neighborhood.  Personality factors are essential in determining one's philosophy towards their own consumption patterns.  You may be an exception to the rule as it applies to the "average" consumer in your neighborhood and that exception could put you on the low side of energy costs or even the high side if you are profligate in your consumption pattern.  It all depends on the "individual" pattern.

Pavel:  " So the question is, what I am doing wrong to look so “cheap”, comparing to the “US average”?"

Well, for myself I wouldn't look at the result in the same light that you have shined on it.  My statement would have been in contradistinction to yours and would have been:  "I must be doing something RIGHT to be keeping my energy costs so LOW!"  Honestly, Pavel, when you take the US as a whole, do you think that the average consumer in teh US uses a wood stove for central heating?  I submit that there are plenty of US homes that do use a wood stove to provide heat, but, Pavel, we are talking about the "average" US home in coming up with a figure for monthly energy consumption and a home of 2,000 square feet to boot.

In July of 2019 the figure for the average home in New York State in one article was listed as:  602 kWh per month and that comes to 7224 kWh per year or 7.224 MWh per year.

Pavel: "if I include the energy not used when “away from home”, I don’t get anywhere near of 8MWh".

So, since you keep your total yearly useage south of 8 MWh per year then, Pavel, you fit right into the "average" use for someone from New York State.  Your own situation is just "average" for New York State.

The same article from July 2019 lists the average use for a resident of Nevada at 924 kWh per month for a total of 11,088 kWh use per year or 11.088 MWh per year.  So, you see, Pavel, one size does NOT fit all. 

"It might be interesting to know that the average home (among all states) consume 916 kWh per month, or 30 kWh per day."

Energy Consumption Per Home | List All 50 States (kWh / month / day) (modernsurvivalblog.com)

The author of that article stated that:

"I went looking for this data while considering a basis or average kWh (kilowatt hours) consumption. Why? Because someone I know is considering an off-grid energy comparison. They are building a rural home and the electric utility company wants a lot of money to bring power up their new road to the house.

It’s good to know the average electricity usage per home for a given state when beginning to design an off-grid solar power system. The number I was trying to get at was the kWh (kilowatt hours) per day. It all relates to the size of a battery bank (and the cost thereof) to store enough energy.

Related: The Four Essentials of Off Grid Solar

That said, there are lots of additional variables beyond just the average home energy consumption. For example this home will use appliances with LP (propane) gas (e.g. stove, hot water, clothes dryer). This will reduce electricity requirements. They will be heating with a wood stove. (A pellet stove doesn’t use much electricity and is also an option). Other factors too…"

Pavel:  "I struggle a bit with the economy of the solar system. According to google, the average charge per kWh in Nevada is 11c, you pay 11c/kWh to Tesla. Not sure if I got it right, but it looks like there is no real benefit to have the solar system. Even if those 11c would be a profit, it would take nearly 20 years to recover the installation costs and in this time they surely need to replace the electronics at least once if not twice."

I have already pointed out that my contract purchase was based on the concept of protecting my home from arbitray and questionable future increases in utility rates by Nevada Energy that would, in all liklihood, be rubber stamped by the Nevada Public Utilities Commission in what I consider as virtual collusion amongst the two.  That protection against a possible future adverse action by the PUC is something that provides a substantial peace of mind to this Nevada consumer of electricity and was well worth the cost I authorized to Solar City at the time and that have now been transferred to Tesla.  As for "installation costs", I paid no cost for installation or for maintaining the solar panels since all of those costs are assumed by the provider of the contract:  Solar City and have reverted to Tesla.  Moving on to the issue of the "need to replace the electronics at least once if not twice":  any replacement cost for the "electronics" would also be the responsibility of Solar City, now assumed by Tesla.  I have no responsibility in my contract for any such replacement costs, but going further on the issue of any need to replace "the electronics" I think that an additional comment should be made about this need that you seem to insist is inevitable.  I address this further down in my reply with comments about the newer micro inverters.

As pointed out in the article linked below, solar panels should last for at least 20 years, but it depends on the manufacturer.  LG, for instance, provides one of the best solar panels and they have a 25 year warranty, but they are also more expensive and they produce a higher yield of electricity for each solar cell and panel.

How Long Do Solar Panels Last and Replacement Guide – Those Solar Guys

Some commercial sources of info on solar panels follows.  Of course those sources have a commercial bias, but that doesn't mean that there isn't some good info in it as well:

(1) Offer Waiting... How Often Are Solar Panel Repairs Needed | Roof ReplacementHow Often Are Solar Panel Repairs Needed | Roof Replacement (powerhome.com)

In specific reference, Pavel, to your comment about the "need to replace the electronics at least once if not twice", I would offer this comment:

"An inspection of your solar panels may also include an inspection of the other equipment involved in a solar installation, namely your solar inverters and roof racking system. A typical central inverter for a PV installation will last between 10 and 15 years and thus will need to be replaced at some point during the lifetime of your solar panels. However, micro inverters are a new and popular alternative to central inverters and generally offer the same lifespan as their solar panel counterparts – 25 years."

That comment about long lived micro inverters comes from the following link:  How Long Do Solar Panels Last? Panel Lifespan Explained | EnergySage

Pavel, I can't speak to all the details of your particular situation there in Northern New York anymore than I can to someone who lives in Alabama or in Texas or in Michigan, however a good place to start for anyone contemplating addding solar to their home would be an article from Energy.gov and the link for that article is:  

Planning a Home Solar Electric System | Department of Energy

Solar packages are like shoes, Pavel.  One size does NOT fit all!! 

 Just 'sayin.   Okiedo