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Message: Re: LITHIUM: Morgan Stanley vs. Morningstar Smackdown - who do you believe?

I don't want to leave the subject of just how reliable is the history of pontificating prognostications regarding the lithium market by Morgan Stanley.

For anyone who does not remember the "accuracy" of piffle from MS spewed out back in 2018 I am providing the following link, below, to reacquaint you with just how far MS can be from hitting the Bull's Eye:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/morgan-stanley-claims-lithium-price-plunge-45-2021-power-more/?articleId=6375049628567502848

"In a research report published this week, the bank predicts the current growth of electric car sales to undershoot current expectations, thereby stoking fears that previous lithium supply shortages will become a redundancy and possibly leaving stockpiles of the metal unsold.

One of the major takeaways from the report, is that Morgan Stanley stipulates a required rate of 31% of all new cars sold being of the electric variety, for the current rate of lithium supply to balance with demand.

The bank says the current rate of new electric cars sold is only around 2% and would have to rise significantly to at least 31% by the year 2025 to “clear the market.

”Morgan Stanley’s research directly contradicts consensus analyst estimates of a lithium supply shortage, but despite its minority-held view, markets reacted negatively to the controversial research report.

 

Prognostication of the future of the lithium market has not been one of Morgan Stanley's strong points in the past.  I don't see much reason to suggest that the leopard has changed its spots here in 2022 over and above how spotted it was back in 2018.

Okiedo

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