My pleasure and feel free to chime in if you here differently on anything or anything you think is important.

I have spoken to a few others (including rkeeb) and I found some data on probabilites of the case being confirmed (i.e., over 85% based on historical precedents for the past 12 months for this type of case in the 9th District Court). 

Of course, every case is unique and this could be that minority case that does not get affirmed, but I will be including the data in my article to try and explain why I think the probabilties are far better than the "50/50" scenario people are talking about and also to explain that even if there is a vacatur, it is not the end of the line for Thacker Pass.

In the end, the value that is being ascribed to the project is almost zero for Thacker Pass which creates a great opportunity for all.

I have read many of the filings and do believe the arguments are strong for LAC (but I am not an attorney). 

However, despite my optimism, there is some historical precedent years ago where Judge Du has sided with other environmental parties in regards to the GSG (Greater Sage Grouse) which we should consider as a flag (I am still bullish mind you, but I do  want to be realistic in what I write).

In my opinion, I do not think she will side with the Indian tribal arguments of the massacre.  She has already indicated in her statements that there is not sufficent evidence in that regard.

In regards to the water issues, the BLM and LAC do a good job in outlining how they have properly followed process and mitigation techniques to manage that and all within the required limits.

Where I see the biggest weakness lies in the wildlife habitat issues (particularly as it relates to the sage grouse more so than the snails, trout, etc...).  The mitigation here is that the land use that is being discussed here is much smaller and the impact far less on the GSG Leks that are out there.  

Ultimately, Judge Du will have to decide whether it is in her purview to overide the BLM in their assessment of the level of dangers posed.

I suspect the DOE is ready to go and the path for a spinout/separation is already planned out, but without the decision from Judge Du, it is all on hold. 

I also suspect that GT1 is also a backup plan shoudl the TP process get dragged out.

Either way, 

GLTA

IRR