IRR,

First off, I have yet to welcome you here. Welcome! I greatly value your frequent and detailed contributions. Second, I appreciate the challenge to back up my opinion with substance.

Galan covered one of my two reasons for why the DoE loan may not be dependent on the outcome of the appeal in the last paragraph of his response. In short, the money from the loan is not a blank check. If the Thacker Pass is not approved, I assume the money will just go back to the DoE. 

My second reason is based on the status of the projects recently awarded grants. I think it is fair to use the grants as a guide for the ATVM loan program as both are through the DoE. I don't see a reason that the dollar amount of the award will affect the timing of the announcement. Here is a link that highlights the projects and I will pull out a few examples to support my assertion below.

https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/DOE%20BIL%20Battery%20FOA-2678%20Selectee%20Fact%20Sheets%20-%201_2.pdf

1. Talon Metals

https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/biden-awards-115m-to-build-north-dakota-plant-to-process-minerals-for-electric-car-batteries

"The company is in negotiations to acquire the land for the plant at an existing “brownfield” industrial site in Mercer County, which lies in the heart of coal country. Talon selected the site from among 18 locations after working with North Dakota economic development officials, said Chief External Affairs Officer Todd Malan.

The firm would still need to gain permitting approval from regulators in North Dakota and Minnesota before beginning the mining and processing operation. 

2. Albemarle

"Albemarle is finalizing the site selection for the lithium hydroxide conversion plant in the southeastern United States."

3. ABTC

Company is in the exploration phase.

"ABTC has secured over 10,000 acres of these lithium-bearing sedimentary resources near Tonopah, NV, and its project team has been performing work under an existing grant award from the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Manufacturing Office (AMO) to demonstrate this process in an integrated multi-ton per day field demonstration system." 

Project info - https://americanbatterytechnology.com/projects/tonopah-flats/

"Next Steps

ABTC engaged RESPEC, a global engineering company, to act as a Qualified Person (QP) to perform an independent analysis of these results and issue a SK-1300 compliant Inferred Resource report. This independent report will quantify the magnitude of this lithium-bearing resource, and this QP Inferred Resource report will contain specific recommendations on further progressing this resource forward to a Measured and Indicated status as defined by the United States Geological Services (USGS)."

Separately, I want to point out a minor detail in the announcement out of White House on Wendsday regarding $2.8 billion in grants from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. When listing the selected projects #1 was the following: "Developing enough battery-grade lithium to supply approximately 2 million EVs annually." I take this as a sign that the administration understands domestic lithium production is the cornerstone/limiting factor for the EV revolution and its placement at the top of the list was not accidental. This message continues to gain more widespread traction. 

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/19/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-driving-u-s-battery-manufacturing-and-good-paying-jobs/