Calculation for Lac
posted on
Dec 27, 2022 01:56PM
Market value USD 2.7 billion.
Cash USD 390 million
Debt USD 245 million.
This market value should yield a profit of approx. USD 200 million
Annual result USD -160 million. Calculate as 4 x last Q result
CO production:
40000 tons of annual production at a selling price of USD 50,000 per ton will give a profit of at least USD 900,000 annually. This will give Lac a profit of USD 450,000. If we set aside 60 million for CO administration it must be high, because all production costs are included in the profit.
In my estimation, SP will have to go up to USD 35 as a fair value for CO in 12 months. In addition, other value from Argentine investments must be taken into account, and Thacker must also have a value.
Short terms:
Thacker probably have a 2023 value between USD 10 to 50 = with positive news and once again postponement.
Long terms
If there is positive news, Thacker's value will skyrocket over the next 3 years. We are talking about an SP of between 200 and 300 a least, which depends on the Lithium price and the project progress.
Conclusion: You must have Lac in your portfolio, even if there is great resistance from market forces, but that too will come to an end.