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Message: Massif Capital.

Massif Capital were discussing their portfolio in the letter to investors. LAC was mentioned:

Our final pre-production mining firm in the portfolio is Lithium America. We have been invested in Lithium America since January 2020, with an average price of roughly $2.8 per share. Interestingly enough, as a result of successfully trading options around our core position, we have generated options premium per share of $2.03, so our effective cost of ownership is $0.77. The shares are currently trading for $20.72, an unrealized return of 2,590%, although it is worth noting that the stock got as high as $38.94 per share, a 4,957% return. In retrospect, we probably misplayed this. When the stock peaked at $38 per share in February/March 2022, we believed the firm, in the fullness of time, could be worth as much as $46 per share, an additional 21% return. At the same time, we felt that the stock had run well ahead of itself; after all, we believed it could be worth $46 per share with two mines operating, not when it was pre-production at two mines. The stock plunged, and we may have to wait several years before it returns to those levels. Hindsight is always 20/20, but with time, it seems apparent that we should have approached the position's price action from a different angle. We knew it was overval[1]ued; we knew that the first production from the firm's Cauchari asset would not be until the first half of 2023 and that Thacker Pass, the firm's second asset, would not turn on until several years later. We did not ask the question: What are the odds that a pre-pro[1]duction mining firm bringing on an asset in Argentina with a Chinese partner remains valued at roughly 10x-12x a projected EBIT that is still two years away? That is a question FOURTH QUARTER 2022 LETTER TO INVESTORS 10 we could have asked at the time with the information we had, and it would probably have caused us to take a different course of action. At the very least, we could have trimmed with reasonably high confidence that we would be able to re-enter at a later date and lower price. These types of calls remain a struggle for us. The reality is that managing a position like LAC, which runs up more than 1,000%, is a challenge, regardless of whether you consider yourself an investor or a trader (a difference, in our opinion, of timelines and little else). Positions like this create concen[1]tration, diversification, and return harvesting decision challenges. Rules and guidelines for managing a position through its lifecycle are helpful. Still, in the end, many of these decisions have a heavy market-timing element, which makes them judgment calls at best. At the core of the challenge is the math of expected returns in the presence of price movement and risk management. ……

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Looking ahead, 2023 should be an exciting year for Lithium America, with the firm turning on Cauchari, a possible split into two publically traded businesses, and legal resolutions on their U.S. asset, Thacker Pass. We are optimistic that splitting the assets up, and thus isolating the U.S.-based assets from the firm's relationship with Chinese lithium giant Gangfeng (JV partner for Cauchari) will result in the U.S.-focused firm eventually earning a premium, as it feeds product into the nascent but rapidly expand[1]ing U.S. battery and EV infrastructure.

 

 

 

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