Re: The 9th Hole...
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 01, 2023 05:04AM
As I see splitting after reviewing the presentation.
Slides 1-4
Mostly standard formalities, nothing wrong nothing new. The strategy is in place. Would rather have seen a synergy between CO and Thacker, but with regard to government loans it cannot be otherwise. Especially with a mine, I don't see any problems with regard to ownership because in special situations the country in question can always take over ownership if there is a conflict. Conclusion decision is made and also ok.
Slide 5
Division per tons
Thacker 40 + 40, maybe 20 extra. Market value 80 tons of sales = 12 billion. with Lithium price as budget
CO 20+10 +Pastor Grande 20. Market value 50 tons of sales = 7 billion. with Lithium price as budget.
Slide 6
No direct ownership between Argentina and US. Must be the best solution.
Slide 7
Fair cash sharing.
Slide 8
If I understand this slide correctly, a split will never be able to trigger a higher SP than 27.74 at that time? This time can probably be expected at the end of 2023. That means a maximum increase of 40% from now.
Slide 9+10+11+12+13+14
No commment, can see it being Q4.
Conclusion:
Good presentation, but understand now that SP has been falling, but at this stage it is a buy.
This is based on previous experiences with splits and takeovers.
- when taking over companies, a 30% premium is the least acceptable
- in the event of a split, a smaller premium is common, but in Lac's case, SP was above 27 when the dialogue started, therefore there have been sales or no purchases from larger investors.
In fact, it seems that this split has been far too long in the making, and should also be able to be implemented somewhat faster. It is only to the advantage of insiders and large investors, because they have always had information before the rest of us. I am staying now, but would never have bought if I had seen this coming. For us small investors have paid the drop in SP because GM had to buy at a low price. Sorry, but it smacks of too much management and it has been paid for by us. Just wait and see, there are probably also quite a few options hidden in the plan.
Would love to know if I'm getting it wrong.