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okiedo

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Re: Information

in response to

Information

HC Andersen

posted on Mar 19, 2024 11:32AM

I think it is more likely that the big drop in share price of LAC after the release of confirmation about the approval of the huge DOE Loan to LAC is due to something like the claim of "Cost Overruns" by Scotiabank.

Does anyone on this message board have more information about Scotiabank's claim of Cost overrun?

Scotiabank: Cost overrun for Lithium Americas (LAC.US) reduces asset value to $7

Scotiabank Canada downgraded Lithium Americas' stock rating from “outperforming the industry” to “in line with the industry” and lowered its target price from $15 to $7.

Zhitong Finance learned that on Monday, Scotiabank Canada downgraded the stock rating of Lithium Americas (LAC.US) from “outperforming the industry” to “in line with the industry” and lowered the target price from $15 to $7 to reflect the cost overrun of Thacker Pass by 30% — from the previous $2.27 billion to $2.93 billion, and said that the excess capital expenditure of only $660 million would shrink its net assets by about $4 per share.

Scotiabank estimates that to complete the first phase, there will be a financing gap of about 300 million US dollars, equivalent to about one-third of the company's market value; Scotiabank analyst Ben Isaacson believes that considering the current interest rate environment and market valuation of Lithium Americas bonds, this may be an expensive financing.

The analyst updated the funding hypothesis for the final portion of Lithium Americas' $330 million, saying that even if Scotiabank assumes an issue price of $8 and the share price is around $6, the stock will be significantly diluted compared to previous expectations, and the company will not fund this portion until the funding gap is resolved. Additionally, in line with Scotiabank's fourth quarter report, Isaacson reduced the price of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) from $25,000 per ton to $20,000 per ton, and the discount rate increased from 8% to 10%.

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If, in fact, the estimate of the $300 Million Dollar "Funding Gap" proves to be correct then the question of how that funding gap will relate to the requirements from GM for the 2nd Tranche of their $650 Million Dollar investment in LAC? One thing may lead to another. Then, of course, there is the fundamental question of is the information from Scotiabank about a large "Funding Gap" for LAC regarding the proposed Thacker Pass Lithium Mine correct in the first place? Are there really "Cost Overruns" and, if so, is it as much as is painted by Scotiabank or is this whole scenario false from the get go?