Re: $5 for the next ?
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 20, 2024 03:23AM
TomSk: "What's next? I expect after this capital expansion, the GM second tranche and DOE-Loan will be completed and given to LAC, so it will be 100% funded.....and sp price should reflect a material jump......I hope...."
That argument makes sense. I just hope that it also makes cents. Unfortunately, LAC has a history of showing stagnation or a down dip in the share price after previously announced news that on the surface of it would appear to be "Good News".
Tom, I believe that the salient requirement for a "material jump" in the LAC share price will be a "material jump" in the price of lithium world wide and that, of course, depends on the balance between supply and demand.
At the present time it appears that every day spits forth another announcement about a new lithium mine being contemplated somewhere in the world. The army of late comers seems to replete with new recruits. That, in itself, would be most depressing if it were not for the fact that every one of those Jonny Come Latelies will have to go through the same long list of hoops in order to satisfy all the environmental regulations and their own set of court battles and governmental approvals before they can finally reach the place on the mountain top where LAC currently surveys the battle ground of deterrent force that impedes the ultimate development of a producing lithium mine. LAC will be the first lithium mine anywhere to utilize lithium clay processing since all other lithium mines are either hard rock mines or brine operations, so LAC has that dragon to slay but it looks like they have done their homework and that they will be the first one ever to accomplish that goal.
If all of the lithium mining companies out in the world that are touted as the next best thing by lazy journalists repeating the company propaganda for each of those newbies were to actually come on line and go to production then the present dismal price of lithium would be considered "High" in that world of over supply.
It is to the advantage of LAC if the process of natural selection does its work and that a large number of the newbies fail and never go to production. Ironically, continued low lithium prices for the next year or two make that process of natural selection go into high gear and low prices would result in a large number of company failures while the lead dogs in the field of developing new lithium mines, LAC being one of those lead dogs, would all benefit at the end of the over supply situation as the price of lithium goes up when demand exceeds supply.
Another way to look at this current picture is in the rear view mirror. LAC now is in a position of having successfully slayed every dragon standing in its way up to this point and standing on the verge of completing the goal of establishing one of the largest North American lithium producing mines, hopefully in the now scheduled time projection of 2026. Of course, LAC is no stranger to pushing the Goal Post down the road from preliminary prognostications. Been there, done that more than once before.
A change in the supply vs demand dynamic tilted toward an increase in demand might just light a fire under the construction process now undergoing out at Thacker Pass. On the other hand, a further decrease in demand could have, and probably would have, the opposite effect and LAC, in that case, would again play the game of "Kick the Can Down the Road".
There is no doubt whatsoever that the GM 2nd Tranche and the D.O.E. loan are major factors regarding the future of LAC, but again a look into the rear view mirror with respect to how the share price was affected by the announcement of these two stellar developments will show an absence of any sustained "material jump" in the share price. Sometimes it almost seems that "Good News" is like a cloud hanging over the LAC share price.
I am of the opinion, and opinions aren't worth much until time catches up to them and reality forces it ugly head on the veracity of opinion projections, that a "material jump" in Lithium demand will, indeed, finally make "Good News" congruent with a Good Outcome relative to the share price.
Keep your eyes on the Supply vs Demand component of the LAC equation. That is where the rubber hits the road and where the tea leaves claiming "success" will actually flower into a positive outcome for all of the LAC investors.
JMO
Okiedo