“As the technology improves, the U.S. charging network expands, and prices moderate further, 54% of current skeptics will become EV considers within three to five years,” the researchers write. “Within the next 10 years, 80% of today’s skeptics will be ready to consider an EV as more barriers fall.”

This is how long it will take for the electric vehicle industry to win over skeptical buyers (msn.com)

"Electric vehicle skeptics are numerous today. A lot fewer people will be skeptical by the end of the decade.

Kelley Blue Book parent company Cox Automotive draws this conclusion in a new study, the 2024 Path to EV Adoption. The study finds that most EV skeptics will consider buying a battery-powered vehicle within three to five years, and 80% will consider an EV within a decade."

Rome wasn't built in a day and the slow conversion to EVs for a large per cent of the auto buying population continues to occur.  It wasn't all that long ago when only 1 to 2% of car sales for new vehicles were EVs.  Now that number is 7.6% and is expected to be 10% by the end of this year:  "Cox Automotive projects EVs will top 10% of all new car sales this year."

The "EVs are Dead" crowd will continue with their "the Earth is Flat" narrative all the while that EV sales are slowly increasing.  What is needed for the current sluggish growth in EV sales is some sort of enzymatic catalyst effect on EV sales.  That catalyst will have to meet multiple characteristics, not the least of which is price competition with ICE vehicles.  Range concern is continuing to be addressed by EV battery improvements, fast charging vs battery swapping technology and the growth of EV charging stations along with the standardization of EV charging plugs patterned after Tesla's version.  Government subsidies for EVs will be a transient thing and can not be relied on in the long run to continue to provide the same incentive for potential EV buyers that it has in the past and still is to some extent in the present, but once the other components of this enzymatic catalyst for the EV industry have been optimized then the dependence on governmental incentives for sales will be consigned to the rear view mirror where it belongs.

10% of all new vehicles purchased will be EVs by the end of 2024.... now that is a powerful prediction from Cox Automotive and it represents a huge number of annual EV sales.  The bottom line is that consumer resistance to purchasing a new EV is slowly, but surely, being eroded and that is a good thing for the lithium mining industry.

We knew this wasn't going to be a sprint.  I believe, personally, that the most important component of a significant increase in EV sales will be bringing the price down for new electric vehicles and that this will be tied in with the gradual acceptance of EVs as a secondary vehicle for consumers, something to tool around with for short local trips while a large number of those consumers keep their gas burner for longer trips on the highway.  Very few will be willing to consider buying an EV as a secondary and local transportation if the cost of that secondary vehicle is considerably higher than their primary ICE vehicle.  Cost must come down in order to appeal to a major component of the automobile buying consumers, those outside of the luxury and first adopter portion of the market.

JMO

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