Thanks, JD.  I did view the video you provided the link to and my response to his forecast probably won't jive with your own, but we are still on the same team.  I want EVs to be successful and to create an incresing demand for lithium so that the key players in the lithium mining industry, LAC included, will benefit from those events.

However, I am very skeptical about the author's (ARK) claim that:  "If robotaxi platforms proliferate, EVs could account for 95-100% of vehicle sales in 2030."

At present in the U.S. EV sales proportion of new vehicle sales are something like 7.6% and the projection is that they may be at 10% of new vehicle sales by the end of this year.

While those numbers are quite encouraging I think it remains to be seen if the growth curve for EVs in the U.S. for the period extending from the present to the year 2030 will mimick the growth curve of a bacteria grown in a Petri dish.

ICE owners are not going to roll over and give the death roll to their allegiance to ICE vehicles just because an EV might be cheaper. Cheaper is not always better and neither is more expensive always better, just ask any Tesla owner who has to take their Tesla into the body shop for repairs.

I found the author's opinions in the video "interesting" but I would personally categorize his opinions as "overly optimistic". That doesn't mean that conversion to EV bying by the auto bying public won't continue to increase, but not all of that increase is going to be for primary vehicle purchase purposes. I still maintain that a large percentage of new EV purchases for some time into the future will be for obtaining a secondary vehicle intended for use on more short distance trips, but that is just my opinion. Even if a large amount of those new car purchases for eVs are for obtaining a secondary vehicle there will still be a continuous increase in the absolute and per cent of EVs purchased so my own view is not consistent with those who feel that it is time for EV manufacturers to make funeral plans.

One other thing that the author of the video jumped on was the Range Anxiety issue. I think it is more complicated than he presented. If a large per cent of EVs sold in the near future are for secondary vehicle status then Range Anxiety will be less and less of a problem for purchasers who use their EVs as a secondary vehicle overall and a primary vehicle for local transportation. Yes, battery developments are continuing to increase the Energy Capacity and Power Capacity of lithium batteries, but the rate of improvement is far from being a crescendo improvement.

He addresses the fast charging issue in a one dimensional way that is not appropriate for the subject as if fast charging was a totally beneficial thing for EV owners and that the improvements will make fast charging a non issue soon. Fast charging overall decreases the effective life of the battery, whether that battery is a lithium ion battery or any other type of battery, so it is a trade off. The convenience of fast charging can be readily had, but you pay extra for it in that you have shortened the life of your battery the more you use this convenience.

I can go into any restaurant and order one item on the menu and anticipate a certain cost and quickly approximate how much that meal is going to cost me with taxes and tip. However, once the waiter starts regurgitating a long list of options that I can add on to my basic order then, depending on how many I select, I will quickly see the final cost of my dinner go UP, UP and away! Everything has a cost. It is the same with Fast Charging lithium batteries and the salesman or saleswoman at your friendly neighborhood EV dealer will never admit that the life of your very expensive EV battery is shortened when you show, as a prospective buyer, that you definitely want "Fast Charging" as an option to your purchase.

As for EVs coming down in price. Well, the main place where that has happened is in China where there is "Competition" out the ying yang due to almost too many EV manufacturers to count, coupled with low labor costs in the first place. Presently here in the U.S. we have a 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs. So, it is unlikely that U.S. manufactured EVs will ever be able to compete on a level playing field with the vast array of cheap to expensive Chinese made EVs. That being said, I do believe that the big movement in EV sales here in the U.S. will be in EVs priced at under $35,000 USD. The author uses the figure $25,000. I would love to agree with him, but I think that the reality of the situation is that when a buyer goes into the dealership to purchase an EV here in the U.S., U.S. made OR foreign made, that before they sign on the dotted line that the "Add Ons" will drive that price initially at $25,000 or less, up to the $30,000 to $35,000 range or even higher. The only way we will see very low priced EVs widely available here in the U.S. will be in the event that the 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs is either dropped or severely curtailed.

Of course, these are just my opinions. I would love to believe that all the projections this guy made will come true post haste, but I just don't buy it. I anticipate a gradual growth in the per cent of new vehicle sales being attributed to EVs over the next 20 years or so, but just as I refuse to accept the argument of some others that the EVis Dead!" I also refuse to believe that the ICE vehicle is in the morgue being prepared for its funeral. Enthusiasm is one thing, but reality is quite often very different.. as I believe it is in this case.

I am still optimistic regarding EVs in general and as the relate to lithium demand in particular. I am just not as optimistic as our young friend who made this video.

Best to you, JD.

Onward through the FOG!

Okiedo