Jennings
posted on
Dec 02, 2009 10:50AM
MAGINDUSTRIES CORP. 2,3 (TSX-MAA C
.54) MKT CAP C$209.1 MILLION
RECOMMENDATION: SPECULATIVE BUY; TARGET: C$1.10
ANALYST: RUSSELL STANLEY
Sinohydro’s Exclusivity Expires; Discussions with Other Parties Initiated
Summary: Earlier today, MAA announced that it had started discussions with other potential strategic
investors, after electing not to extend the exclusivity provided to Sinohydro.
Impact: On a net basis, this is a negative development, as it represents added uncertainty regarding
project financing and construction/production timelines. As a silver lining, we note that the Company can
now negotiate freely with other parties and that the environment for potash investments has improved
somewhat since the original MOU with Sinohydro was announced in June 2009. As of writing, the stock’s
negative reaction has been relatively modest (down 7%); however, we believe the completion of the
proposed transaction with Sinohydro was never fully priced into the stock.
Additional Detail: The MOU with Sinohydro was originally announced on June 12, 2009. The MOU
contemplates a C$280 million equity investment in MAA by Sinohydro at C
.70/share. Sinohydro would
also stand ready to provide the debt required by the Company. If completed, this agreement would
finance Phase I construction of the Company’s potash project. In today’s press release, MAA indicated
that Sinohydro’s decision making process is continuing. The final decision now rests with Sinohydro’s
Board of Directors, whose priorities and timelines are unknown.
As noted, the Company indicated it has started discussions with several other parties – both within and
outside of China - for potential investment at either the corporate level (i.e. MagIndustries’ stock) or
project level. In terms of maintaining timelines for construction and eventual production, this represents a
potential step backward. However, we believe that the due diligence work done with Sinohydro to date
may help MAA in discussions with other parties.
We continue to rate MAA a SPECULATIVE BUY with a 12-month target price of C$1.10.
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