"If the FDA is not unduly influenced by big money hedges betting against Lorcaserin, then I would give Lorcaserin a 70% shot at gaining approval. If the big money hedges are successful at unduly influencing of the regulators, then a 20% shot is in order. In a perfect world I would like to think that undue influence from big money does not occur, but I think most people reading this know the realities of how things can work sometimes. Mannkind (MNKD) had its inhaled diabetes treatment rejected in great part because of what I feel was undue influence by a large hedge fund manager."

http://seekingalpha.com/article/535241-friday-s-bio-pharma-watch-list-focus-on-arena-and-antares